Stevenson University

BUS 620

MODULE 2 Quiz

1)The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from

1. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be
2. One of the characteristics of forecasts is
3. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer),
4. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when
5. Time series forecasting methods are most appropriate when

6. Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?
7. Which of the following is not a forecasting method?

A) Qualitative

7. 1. 2. Time series
      3. Causal
      4. Simulation
      5. All of the above are forecasting methods.
8. Forecasting methods that are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment are known as
9. Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as
10. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be
11. The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be
12. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer),
13. The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is
14. The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is
15. The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is
16. The two general approaches to forecasting are:
17. Which one of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?
18. The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:
19. Forecasts on individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families
20. The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales
21. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved
22. Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application
23. As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts:
24. Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?
25. Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?
26. The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or mangers is known as:
27. Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?
28. Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?
29. Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

30. The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the:
31. Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish great smoothing, but at the expense of:
32. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalents to a naive forecast?
33. The tracking signal is the:
34. Many services maintain record of sales noting:
35.            expresses the error as a percent of the actual values
36. The goal of any forecasting method is to
37. The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as
38. For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 – 4*t. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:
39. A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1*t. What is your forecast for period 7?
40. The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.
41. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.
42. The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different.
43. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.
44. Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.
45. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable.
46. Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.
47. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.
48. Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.
49. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.
50. Time series forecasting methods are the most difficult methods to implement.
51. Causal forecasting methods find a correlation between demand and environmental factors and use estimates of

what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand.

52. The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate.
53. In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.
54. The moving average forecast method is used when demand has an observable trend or seasonality.
55. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly unpredictable.
56. Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.
57. The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from
58. For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to
59. The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast is
60. When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be
61. The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be
62. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving
63. Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning
64. Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning
65. Mature products with stable demand
66. When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions
67. One of the characteristics of forecasts is
68. One of the characteristics of forecasts is
69. Forecasts are always wrong and therefore
70. Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short- term forecasts because
71. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because
72. In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer),
73. Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as
74. Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the

environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known as

75. Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as
76. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when
77. Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?
78.               forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.).
79.               forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.
80.               forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.
81. The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown as
82. The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as
83. A static method of forecasting
84. In adaptive forecasting
85. The moving average forecast method is used when
86. The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when
87. The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt's Model) forecast method is appropriate when
88. Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for July. What is the forecast?
89. Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for March. What is the forecast if α = 0.7?
90. What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?
91. The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is
92. The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is
93. The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is
94. The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

1. mean absolute deviation (MAD).

95. The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is
96. Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error?

97. The             is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next.
98. Calculate the MAD for this scenario if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2.
99. Calculate the MSE for this scenario if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2.
100. What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting) if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2?
101. What is the mean absolute percentage error if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2?
102. Use Solver to determine the alpha that minimizes the MAD for the ten period forecast for the data that appear in this table. Use the actual demand as the forecast for period 1 and then use exponential smoothing.
103. A seasonal factor for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and

130. The average demand over all months during the three-year time period was 190. What is the approximate seasonal factor for July?

104. The trend projection of a certain product in spring is 800 units. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the seasonal factor for spring is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted demand forecast for spring?
105. The actual demand of a certain product in spring is 800 units. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the seasonal factor for spring is 1.25. What is the deseasonalized demand for spring?
106. The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is
107. What does the acronym CPFR represent?
108. The local hominy man is anticipating a bumper crop this year, so he arranges with a chain of grocery stores to stock up on his hominy as part of a Homina Homina Hominy campaign to lure customers in to the stores during September for cans of the divinely salty, yet nutritious vegetable. This approach is an example of
109. Successful CPFR must be built on a foundation of
110. The actual demand of a product in March is 100 units and the forecast was 90, what is the forecast error:
111. If a tracking signal is significantly positive, which one of the following is true?
112. What does the acronym CPFR represent?
113. Successful CPFR must be built on a foundation of
114. The local hominy man is anticipating a bumper crop this year, so he arranges with a chain of grocery stores to stock up on his hominy as part of a Homina Homina Hominy campaign to lure customers in to the stores during September for cans of the divinely salty, yet nutritious vegetable. This approach is an example of