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Homework answers / question archive / Suppose Mike tosses 3 heads on the first toss, and then praises the coins (“Good coins!”) What is the probability of doing worse on the second toss?

Suppose Mike tosses 3 heads on the first toss, and then praises the coins (“Good coins!”) What is the probability of doing worse on the second toss?

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Suppose Mike tosses 3 heads on the first toss, and then praises the coins (“Good coins!”) What is the probability of doing worse on the second toss?

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Answer:

"The proabability of getting a heads in a fair coin = Probability of getting a tail = 1/2

Thus probability of getting 3 heads in the first toss = (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/8

Each toss is independent of the other toss. Thus, irrespective of how the outcomes are in first toss, it won't affect the outcomes of the second toss.

Thus Probability of getting atleast one tails (doing worse) = 1- Probability of getting no tails (all heads) = 1-1/8 = 7/8

Thus probability of doinf worse on second toss = 7/8

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