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Analysis of the International Business Opportunity in Germany

Economics

Analysis of the International Business Opportunity in Germany. Your product and area is Automotiv.
Economic, Political, and Legal Analysis of the Trading Country

  1. The trading country’s economic system; economic information important to the
    proposed product/service; and the level of foreign investment in that country.
  2. The trading country’s governmental structure and stability, and how the government
    regulates trade and private business.
  3. Laws and/or governmental agencies that affect the product/service such as labor laws
    and trade laws.

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Answer -Most inhabitants of Germany are ethnic German. However, there are also more than 7 million foreign residents, a lot of those who are related to “guest workers”. “Guest workers were foreign workers, mostly from Turkey, invited to Germany in the 1950s and 1960s to fill labor shortages) who remained in Germany. Germany has a sizable ethnic Turkish population (2.4% at the beginning of 2010). Germany is also a prime destination for political and economic refugees from many developing countries. An ethnic Danish minority lives in the north and a small Slavic minority known as the Sorbs lives in eastern Germany” (“Germany,” 2012). Most “foreigners” do not have German citizenship, even if they were born and raised in Germany. This is due to highly restrictive German citizenship laws. However, change is coming, and with the citizenship and immigration law reforms that took place in 2002, many foreign citizens have been getting their citizenships and have gained the ability to naturalize.Germany is a very temperate country located in Europe. It is much cooler and rainier than most of the United States. It is approximately 137,000 square miles, about the size of Montana. The largest city is Berlin with a population of about 3.5 million people. The next three largest cities, Munich, Cologne, and Hamburg all have populations over a million. As far as the terrain is concerned there are low plains in the north; high plains, hills, and basins in the center and east; mountainous alpine region in the south.Germany has one of the world’s highest levels of education, technological development, and economic productivity. Since the end of World War II, the number of youths entering universities has more than tripled, and the trade and technical schools of the Federal Republic of Germany (F.R.G.) are among the world’s best (Germany, 2012). Germany, as country, is mainly middle class. The social welfare system that is set up in Germany provides universal medical care, generous unemployment compensation, and provides for many other social needs. Germans also travel extensively, and millions of Germans travel abroad every year.It is estimated that the population of Germany will decline from the current 81 million people to around 77 million people by 2050. Due to this demographic change, the available workforce aged 20-64 will shrink by more than six million by 2030, resulting in a marked shortage of skilled workers. In the absence of appropriate and timely policy action, demographic change threatens to become a constraining factor for prosperity and growth (Germany, 2012).When unification happened in 1990 Germany began a major undertaking. Their goal was to bring the standard of living of people living in the former German Democratic Republic to where it was in western Germany. This has really been a struggle for Germany because of how inefficient business had been in the former German Democratic Republic. There was also the issue of property ownership that had to be settled. On top of all of that, there was a tremendous amount of environmental damage from communist rule as well.“Economic uncertainty in eastern Germany is often cited as one factor contributing to extremist violence, primarily from the political right. Confusion about the causes of the current hardships and a need to place blame has found expression in harassment and violence by some Germans directed toward foreigners, particularly non-Europeans. The vast majority of Germans condemn such violence” (Germany, 2012).The German economy is the world’s fourth largest and, after the expansion of the EU, accounts for more than one-fifth of European Union GDP. Germany is the United States’ largest European trading partner and is the sixth largest market for U.S. exports. Germany’s “social market” economy largely follows free-market principles, but with a considerable degree of government regulation and generous social welfare programs.The German economy–the fifth largest in the world in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and Europe’s largest–is a leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and household equipment and benefits from a highly skilled labor force. Like its Western European neighbors, Germany faces significant demographic challenges to sustained long-term growth. Low fertility rates and declining net immigration are increasing pressure on the country’s social welfare system and have compelled the government to undertake structural reforms. The modernization and integration of the eastern German economy–where unemployment can exceed 20% in some municipalities–continues to be a costly and long-term process, with total transfers from west to east amounting to roughly 3 dollar trillion so far.In 2011, gross domestic product grew by 2.7%. The country’s export-dependent economy is growing more quickly than the euro-zone average. In 2010, gross domestic product grew by 3.6%, and the German economy experienced its strongest rate of growth since reunification. Domestic demand is becoming a more prominent driver of growth. The German labor market also showed a strong performance in 2010 and 2011, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5% in October 2011. Economists attribute the decrease in unemployment to structural reforms implemented under the government of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and to the use of government-sponsored “short-time” (Kurzarbeit) work programs. The German economy so far has been largely unaffected by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, but a recession or slowdown of Europe’s largest economy is expected for the winter half of the 2011-2012 year, mostly due to declining exports to the country’s European partners.The European Union (EU) gave Germany until 2013 to get its consolidated budget deficit below 3% of GDP, and the government’s 4-year fiscal consolidation program worth approximately 80 billion (U.S. 109.6 billion dollar) is intended to meet deficit targets. Germany’s deficit decreased from 3.3% of GDP in 2010 to 2.0% of GDP (est.) in 2011 thanks to the strong economy and low unemployment.In May 2011, Chancellor Merkel announced Germany’s plan to phase out nuclear energy power by 2022. It is expected that this policy will further accelerate the growth of the renewable energies sector.Germany is the largest consumer market in the European Union with a population of over 82 million dollars . However, the significance of the German marketplace goes well beyond its borders. An enormous volume of worldwide trade is conducted in Germany at some of the world’s largest trade events, such as MEDICA, Hannover Fair, Automechanika, and the ITB Tourism Show. The volume of trade, number of consumers, and Germany’s geographic location at the heart of a 27-member European Union make it a cornerstone around which many U.S. firms seek to build their European and worldwide expansion The German economy has improved markedly in recent years. The economy took a serious hit during the economic crisis, but recovered quickly.The German economy has been steadily improving recently. There was a serious setback during the economic crisis, but recovery occurred quickly. “Like most other OECD countries GDP declined significantly in 2009 (by 4.7%), but grew by 3.6% in 2010, the highest rate since unification. Following a 3% growth in 2011, the pace of expansion is expected to slow in 2012” (Germany, 2012). Most of the market research organizations had been predicting the GDP of Germany in 2012 to be around 1%, but are lowering that to around 0.6%.The United States State Department (2012) had this to say in regards to Germany’s labor market.The labor market remained resilient during the economic crisis and continued to be strong in 2011. In addition to a series of labor and social reforms implemented in recent years, many experts credit the government-funded short-time work program for limiting unemployment. Other factors, such as moderate wage increases, flexibility in bargaining agreements, numerous company-level alliances to retain jobs, and employers’ willingness to accept higher unit labor costs, also contributed to the stability of the German labor market. Job cuts in logistics and manufacturing have been offset by job creation in other sectors, such as services and health care. Also due to a declining workforce, average unemployment dropped to 2.976 million over the course of last year, with an average jobless rate of 7.1% – down from 7.7% in 2010. For 2012, the government expects unemployment to decline to an average of 6.8%.Although unemployment is still higher in the east of the country than the west (11.3% versus 6.0%), it dropped to the lowest level in 20 years. The number of persons in employment living in Germany reached an all-time high (about 41.6 million) in November 2011, an increase of 521,000 from a year ago.The wages in Germany, when compared to the rest of the world, are among the highest in the European Union and worldwide. German labor is also known to be very productive and highly skilled. German quality is known throughout the world.The unions in Germany are incredibly large and powerful. Strong labor laws protect the workers and give them many rights. The laws in Germany are much more substantial than in the United States. “Ordinary dismissal of workers must be preceded by notice, which depends on the duration of the time the employee was with the company. It may vary from 1-7 months. The employee may also challenge the dismissal in court. The Mother Protection Law grants a mother a total of 36 months leave. 6 weeks prior to birth and 8 weeks thereafter are on paid leave. The mother and the employer can agree on a parental leave (max. 36 months), after which the employer provides her with the same job prior to the birth of the child. Social Security and Health Care cost are equally split up between the employee and the employer. Average working hours are 37.5 hours/week and annual leave varies between 20 and 30days. There really are not a lot of formal barriers concerning trade with the United States or investment. The only one that could be considered substantial would be Germany’s participation in the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and their continued restrictions on biotech agricultural products. This does place some barriers on U.S. goods.Germany has continually tried to get the EU commission to ease up on the regulations to help and try to promote innovation and help the EU members become more competitive. The government under Merkel has made the case for widespread reform in Germany. Specifically, there is a drive to cut through the bureaucratic red tape and reduce the costs due to the complex nature of their bureaucracy.The complexity, in and of itself, offers a certain degree of protection to the local businesses because the complexity of the regulations makes it that much more difficult for foreign competitors to do business in Germany. There are very stringent safety standard and environmental standards that are zealously applied that cuts back on the access available to U.S. products. As a result, any American companies considering exporting to Germany really need to evaluate the standards that would be applicable to their products and insure that they met them on a timely .Germany continues to be close with the United States of America. They maintain their membership in NATO, and they continue to be a vital component of the EU. Germany made sure that after the war that they were actively involved in closer cooperation politically, economically, and defensively with other countries of Western Europe. Germany has been, and will continue to be, one of the largest contributors to the EU budget.After the war, Germany made great effort to repair its relationship with the countries of Eastern Europe. They started by establishing trade agreements and worked their way up to actual diplomatic relationships. When Germany unified in 1990, their relationship with other democratic countries in Europe blossomed even further.The government is parliamentary, and a democratic constitution emphasizes the protection of individual liberty and division of powers in a federal structure. The chancellor (prime minister) heads the executive branch of the federal government. The duties of the president (chief of state) are largely ceremonial; the chancellor exercises executive power. The Bundestag (lower, principal chamber of the parliament) elects the chancellor. The president normally is elected every 5 years by the Federal Assembly, a body convoked only for this purpose, comprising the entire Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates (Germany, 2012).The Bundestag, which serves a 4-year term, consists of at least twice the number of electoral districts in the country (299). When parties’ directly elected seats exceed their proportional representation, they may receive additional seats. The number of seats in the Bundestag was reduced to 598 for the 2002 elections. The Bundesrat (upper chamber or Federal Council) consists of 69 members who are delegates of the 16 Laender (states). The legislature has powers of exclusive jurisdiction and concurrent jurisdiction with the Laender in areas specified in the Basic Law. The Bundestag has primary legislative authority. The Bundesrat must concur on legislation concerning revenue shared by federal and state governments and those imposing responsibilities on the states.Germany has an independent federal judiciary consisting of a constitutional court, a high court of justice, and courts with jurisdiction in administrative, financial, labor, and social matters. The highest court is the Bundesverfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court), which ensures a uniform interpretation of constitutional provisions and protects the fundamental rights of the individual citizen as defined in the Basic Law (Germany, Information technology, without a doubt, is the single most important factor in transforming the world into a global economy. As the rankings are starting to point out, how a company ranks as far as its advancement with information technology is also how it ranks in the overall global economy. Technology is what differentiates a superior economy from that of an inferior one. Technological innovation always lies at the core of any long-term potential of any economy, and Germany is no different. When looking at Europe as a whole, technological capability runs the gamut. In Great Britain and Ireland, they are much higher on capability than the rest of Europe. On the bottom end there is Greece, Italy, and Spain. Germany, and the rest of Europe, is somewhere in the middle. There is a lot of advancement in IT in fields that would necessitate that, such as aerospace, mobile phones, and pharmaceuticals. However, it is very poor in the service sectors.“The general consensus is that Europe’s information technology infrastructure not only lags behind the U.S. and Japan, but that the technology gap is rapidly closing between Europe and Asia’s new tech powerhouses (like China, India and South Korea). Europe risks being squeezed between the high end challenge posed by the U.S. and Japan and the catch-up challenge posed by the rapidly developing countries” (Hamilton & Quinlan, 2008).Where Germany is a little stronger in the technological exports is within the realm of medium-high tech exports. According to Hamilton and Quinlan (2008):When it comes to high-tech exports, Germany’s share (20.5%) lags behind the EU15 average (25.7%), and is well under the share of the U.S. (36.1%) and China (36%). Against this backdrop, as Germany edges closer to being a knowledge-based service economy, it must keep and embellish its competitive strengths in high-tech goods and services, or suffer a loss in average economic welfare. In a world economy where the application of technology and innovation increasingly dictates both the pace of change and the level of economic prosperity, Germany is challenged to raise its innovation-intensity production and capabilities, while continuing to attract the investment capital and IT core competencies of foreign technology leaders.