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The new director of special events at a large university has decided to completely revamp graduation ceremonies. Toward that end, a PERT chart of the major activities has been developed. The chart has five paths with expected completion times and variances as shown in the table. Graduation day is 16 weeks from now.

Use Table B and Table B1.


Path Expected Duration
A 10                 1.21
B 8                 2.00
C 12                 1.00
D 15                 2.89
E 14                 1.44


Assuming the project begins now, what is the probability that the project will be completed before: (Round your z-value to 2 decimal places and all intermediate probabilities to 4 decimal places. Round your final answers to 4 decimal places.)


a. Graduation time?


  Probability for graduation time
 because the probability of finishing on schedule is only about [removed].



If there is a penalty of $5,000 a week for each week the project is late, what is the probability of incurring a penalty of at least $5,000? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and "Probability" values to 4 decimal places.)


  Probability [removed]  








40.00 points



Problem 17-11

The following precedence diagram reflects three time estimates for each activity. Determine:

Use Table B1 and Table B2.



The expected completion time for each path and its variance. (Round intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)


  Path       Mean       Var.       Std. Dev.
  1-2-3-8-11 [removed]     [removed]     [removed]    
  1-2-4-6-11 [removed]     [removed]     [removed]    
  1-2-4-7-11 [removed]     [removed]     [removed]    
  1-2-5-9-10-11 [removed]     [removed]     [removed]    



The probability that the project will require more than 49 weeks. (Round intermediate calculations and final answer to 4 decimal places.)


  P(T ≥ 49 wk.) [removed]  



The probability that the project can be completed in 46 weeks or less. (Round intermediate calculations and final answer to 4 decimal places.)


  P(T ≤ 46 wk.) [removed]  

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