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Methodology section draft This section seeks to provide a clear and concise description of the research design and the methods used to collect and analyze the data

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Methodology section draft

This section seeks to provide a clear and concise description of the research design and the methods used to collect and analyze the data. The following is the manner in which the thesis will collect data to answer the research question. Division is made between research design, data collection, data analysis, and possible limitations incurred during the collection of the said data. The research design used in the thesis is a comparative case study. This approach allows for the analysis of two cases, (Turkey and Croatia) to identify commonalities and differences in the process of accession talks. The two cases are chosen due to their unique history and current political context. Turkey has been in accession talks with the EU since 2005, while Croatia joined the EU in 2013 after completing its accession talks in 2011. To achieve this objective, a mixed-methods approach will be utilized, consisting of both quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. Overall, the data collection process will be designed to provide a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the factors that influence the success of accession talks between countries and the EU.

Data Collection

This section includes both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources will include EU documents related to accession talks such as progress reports, negotiation chapters, and decision-making records. Secondary sources include academic articles, books, and reports on EU enlargement and the accession talks of Turkey and Croatia. These sources will provide a broader context for understanding the accession talks, as well as alternative perspectives on the issues and factors affecting the talks. The quantitative component of the research will involve a dataset of all countries that have been in accession talks with the EU since the 1990s, including both successful and unsuccessful cases. Although the thesis focuses on two case studies in particular (i.e Croatia and Turkey), an overall list comprising of all the countries that had been granted the status of ‘candidate’ by the EU will serve as a wide angle perspective on the matter. The data is collected from the European countries’ official websites (such as The Netherlands’, the EPSON database, etc.), and other relevant sources, such as academic publications, and reports. This section seeks to include data published by governments, to ensure the reliability and the publicing source. The data includes information on the length of the accession process, the number of negotiation chapters opened and closed, the number of benchmarks met, the level of economic development, and other relevant socio-economic indicators.

The qualitative component of the research involves interviews with EU officials, representatives of candidate countries, and relevant experts in the field. (Interview with Turkey’s ambassador in Lithuania done by me- TO BE CONFIRMED).  The variables will be operationalized and measured as follows:

1.            Length of the accession process: The length of the accession process will be measured in years, from the date of the official start of the negotiations to the date of the final accession agreement.

2.            Number of negotiation chapters opened and closed. Each candidate country's accession discussions are based on the acquis' (now 35) chapters. These line up with the various areas of the acquis where reforms are required to satisfy the requirements for membership. The applicant nations must modify their institutional and administrative frameworks and bring their national laws into compliance with relevant EU regulations. The various chapters are examined as part of the acquisition screening and are continually assessed until each chapter is finished. The number of negotiation chapters opened and closed will be recorded specifically for Croatia and Turkey, and the progress of negotiations will be analyzed in terms of the number of chapters completed. ‘Chapters’ are also connected with the Copenhagen criteria, hence this section will try to analyze whether Croatia and Turkey do in fact satisfy the said criteria.

3.            Number of benchmarks met: The number of benchmarks met will be recorded for both countries and will include areas such as the rule of law, human rights, and economic reform. Parts of political interviews and statements made by various politicians at the European Parliament are covered in this section, together with commentary from other EU officials on the topic (specifically for Turkey). One of these is Harald Vimilsky's speech before the EU Parliament outlining the standards Turkey has  failed to meet in relation to its application to join the EU. This is primarily included to offer a general sense of how various EU MPs feel about the benchmarks. This is included primarily to give an overview of how different EU politicians perceive the benchmarks. In other words, throughout the years Turkey has in fact, implemented certain measures (e.g changes in the national law to reflect EU’s standards) to adapt itself to the criteria imposed by the EU, however, none of these efforts have been successful.

4.            Level of economic development: The level of economic development will be measured using GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and inflation rate. Online databases such as Eurostat, OECD, and World Bank (this is an approximation- the type of data mentioned in this section needs to be carefully analyzed and compared to ensure reliability. Hence, the list of these websites will likely change)can be used to gather data on economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and trade balances for Turkey and Croatia. These databases also provide access to political and social data such as human development index (HDI), political stability, and corruption indices. In order to attempt to address the research question, the data gathered in this part will largely concentrate on the aforementioned elements.

Data Analysis

The quantitative data will be analyzed using statistical techniques such as regression analysis, to identify the significant variables that influence the success of accession talks. The analysis will be conducted using statistical software, such as SPSS or Stata. The qualitative data collected from interviews and the above mentioned databases will be analyzed using thematic analysis, identifying patterns and themes in the data. The analysis will be conducted using software such as NVivo, to aid in the organization and categorization of the data.

Integration of Data

The results of the quantitative and qualitative analysis will be integrated to provide a comprehensive understanding of the factors that influence the success of accession talks between countries and the EU. The findings will be presented in a coherent and concise manner, allowing for a clear interpretation of the research outcomes.

Limitations

There are several limitations to this study, including potential biases in the data, such as the limited scope of the study, focusing solely on accession talks related to Turkey and Croatia. Despite these limitations, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the factors that contribute to the success of accession talks (taking Croatia into account), and will have implications for the future enlargement of the EU.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reports that will be considered:

EU report on Turkey (2022). The report focuses on EU enlargement policy. It will be utilized as a primary source (see data collection section above).

https://www.ab.gov.tr/siteimages/resimler/Türkiye%20Report%202022%20(1)(2).pdf

 

The link below comprises a list of EU reports on Turkey from 1998 to November 2022. The reports will be compared to search for similarities and differences throughout the years.

https://www.ab.gov.tr/regular-progress-reports_46224_en.html

 

EU report on Croatia (2012). Croatia joined the EU in 2013 hence the last report is dated from the year before that. The latter is a monitoring report on Croatia's suitability for EU membership.

http://aei.pitt.edu/44529/1/Croatia_analytical_2012_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The thesis will vert on countries' accession talks at the EU and whether there is a double standard when it comes to specific countries. It will not specifically be on ALL the countries that have tried / are trying to apply for the candidate status but on the difference between TURKEY and CROATIA. In this sense, it will need to capture all the nuances related to why Turkey is still in the process to access the EU and Croatia already accessed it years ago. It needs to have an introductory section, a literature review section, methodology, and analysis. This is a bachelor thesis.