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Hayes Pump, LLC is a multi-line distributor of industrial pumps and fluid management equipment

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Hayes Pump, LLC is a multi-line distributor of industrial pumps and fluid management equipment.They have been continuously been operating in the New England/New Jersey region since 1898.  The company is owned by a small group of people, some f whom are management employees in the company and some of whom are private investors.

 

The company employs 24 sales executives, each of whom has control over an exclusive sales territory within Hayes’ geographic distribution are.  Thomas Dever, Hayes’ CFO has maintained detailed records of ales volume be territory as well as by season. He has always believed that Hayes’ business is seasonal and that one of the key success factors for hayes has been the experience of its sles force.

 

You have been brought in as an intern to Mr. Dever in order to assist him with some quantitative analysis in order to help prepare next year’s sales forecast for the company as a while and for eac sales territory.  Mr. Dever has provided you with two sets of data.  The first piece of data is a summary profile of each sales executive’s territory including information about botth the territory and the sales executive.

 

Mr. Dever has asked you  to conduct all of the quantitative analysis necessary for the projection of next year’s sales, seasonally adjusted by quarter.  He is also interested in testing his belief that the experience of the sales force is an important factor in the success of the company by performing a regression analysis on that data.

 

The other requirements of this internship consst of trying to develop a more sophisticated and potentially more accurate model for predicting each sales executive’s sales volume by using more data that just the experience of the sales executive.  You must also produce sample quarterly sales projections and their 95% prediction intervals for next year for two of the sales  executives; Sanford and Putnam.  In projecting their sales for 2006, please keep the following facts in mind:

 

Sanford: Will have an additional year of experience, Number of accounts  to increase 3%, NO OTHER CHANGES.

 

Putnam: Will have an additional year of experience, Number of accounts to drop by 2% and territory to increase in size by 10%.  It is expected that 14% of Putnam’s sales will be concentrated in his top 20 accounts in 2006.

 

Your report to Mr. Dever should take the form of a 1 page typewritten business memo with up to 4 pages of supporting documentation.  Your analysis should be well-written and concise, with clear references to your supporting analysis.

 

 

Sales Executive

Number of Accounts

Average Account Size

Territory Size (sq. miles)

Sales Executive’s Experience

% of Sales in top 20 Accounts

Annual Sales Volume

 

 

 

	Number	Size	Area	Experience	Concentratin	Volume
Barnes	194	4200	698	8	28%	896598
Cataldo	403	2800	318	18	28%	1512942
Feldman	200	10180	718	12	18%	1026409
Gregory	416	2750	484	16	30%	1541292
Habib	209	6525	430	14	26%	1374452
Innocent	486	2100	585	18	25%	1543222
Jackson	361	2500	591	22	20%	1555897
Keough	287	4750	714	13	12%	976374
Lamarello	436	1850	812	13	18%	1216523
Nackman	262	2598	724	13	10%	881507
O’Toole	345	2500	377	12	15%	1163445
Putnam	478	1473	545	11	10%	1065381
Rogerson	374	3150	315	17	25%	1423769
Sanford	264	5220	319	20	15%	1514870
Tremonti	389	4340	567	10	25%	964610
U’deke	398	3800	571	16	20%	1369312
Varelli	157	9010	516	15	27%	1426405
Winston	247	4750	620	12	22%	1290142
Yang	295	5675	733	14	25%	1003088
Zadravec	153	7265	587	10	23%	1120556

 

 

 

 

		2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Quarter 1	Jan - Mar	2549782	4603773	3098694	4330472	4245712
Quarter 2	Apr - Jun	7043773	7596226	6640058	7698617	7192652
Quarter 3	Jul - Sep	6455038	7826415	7082728	7217454	8928809
Quarter 4	Oct - Dec	3936226	2992453	5312046	4811636	4499621