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Evaluate the STRENGTH/WEAKNESS of each of the following inductive arguments

Philosophy

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Evaluate the STRENGTH/WEAKNESS of each of the following inductive arguments. Remember, that you must write own

argument here in support of your evaluation. That argument should make direct reference to the various rules that govern strength and weakness for each of the types of inductive arguments. For an example, see the lecture notes on Induction under Module 3.

 

Remember that when evaluating inductive arguments formally you are not concerned with validity; rather the issue is one of "strength/weakness". Specifically, the question to be asked is: given the evidence, how plausible is the conclusion? Of course, the whole idea behind the specific forms and rules governing the different types of inductive arguments is to specify how to make the conclusion most probable. Also, remember that when evaluating inductive arguments, you are going to have to write own argument to support your evaluation. So, you must marshal your evidence as clearly and cogently as possible. The easiest way to this is to use the specific rules that govern "strength/weakness" as the markers to structure your evidence.

 

Hint One: make sure you know what the argument is about—identify its conclusion and the evidence used in support of the conclusion.

 

Hint Two: all inductive arguments have certain "rules" that are used to determine strength/weakness. Your argument should make CLEAR reference to those rules!

 

Hint Three: what matters here is NOT whether you agree with the conclusion—what matters is whether there is strong/weak evidence for the conclusion. Remember that a strong inductive argument can still have a false conclusion! All you want to do is determine if the evidence is strong! So, DO NOT devise an argument against the conclusion—instead evaluate the evidence being put forward in support of the conclusion.

 

Hint Four: if you've written less than 2, you haven't done enough! (The boxes should expand to accommodate your argument.)

 

Hint Five: have fun! Seriously...this shouldn't be onerous. The arguments may be boring (sorry), but try to have some fun evaluating them.

 

Argument One:

On a recent logic quiz fourteen of twenty-five students received a failing grade. When examining the reasons for this, the professor noted that ten of the fourteen students had been absent more than three times before the quiz. The other four students were never absent. He also discovered that all fourteen students had been at a large party until early in the morning the night before the quiz. He concluded that being at the party was a likely cause of the student's poor performance.

 

Analysis & Evaluation:

 

 

Argument Four:

How can we prove that God must exist? Easy. Look, a watch is a complex mechanism that follows clearly delineated rules and laws and which we know could not have occurred spontaneously or naturally. In other words, a watch had to have a maker. Well, the universe is like a watch. It too is a complex mechanism that follows clearly delineated rules and laws. So, it too could not have occurred spontaneously, but also must have had a creator.

 

Analysis & Evaluation: