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Saudi Electronic University MGT 530 Exponential smoothing 1)A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is: A

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Saudi Electronic University

MGT 530

Exponential smoothing

1)A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A.            a naive forecast.

B.            a simple moving average forecast.

C.            a centered moving average forecast.

D.            an exponentially smoothed forecast.

E.            an associative forecast.

 

2. Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

A.            smoothes random variations in the data

B.            weights each historical value equally

C.            has an easily altered weighting scheme

D.            has minimal data storage requirements

E.            smoothes real variations in the data

 

 

3. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

A.            0

B.            01

C.            1

D             5

E.            1.0

4. Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

A.            01.

B.            10.

C.            15.

D             20.

E.            60.

5. Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

A.            36.9

B.            57.5

C.            60.5

D.            62.5

E.            65.5

6. Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be: A.             80.8.

B.            93.8.

C.            100.2.

D.            101.8.

E.            108.2.

7. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

A.            0

B.            01

C.            05

D             10

E.            15

 

8. In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

A.            an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor.

B.            an exponentially smoothed forecast and an estimated trend value.

C.            the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor.

D.            the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor.

E.            a moving average and a trend factor.

 

9. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000? A.  18,750

B.            19,500

C.            21,000

D.            22,650

E.            22,800

 

10. What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .05 and beta = .3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

A.            18,750

B.            19,500

C.            21,000

D.            22,650

 

E.            22,800

11. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if the forecast for two years ago was 750? A.        163

B.            180

C.            300

D.            420

E.            510

12. What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .3 and beta = .2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

A.            162.4

B.            180.3

C.            301.4

D.            403.2

E.            510.0

13. What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?

A.            49

B.            50

C.            52

D.            65

E.            77

14. What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was -5?

A.            49.3

B.            50.6

C.            51.3

D.            65.4

E.            78.7

 

15. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000? A.           20,000

B.            19,000

C.            17,500

D.            16,000

E.            15,000

 

16. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2,600? A.              2,600

B.            2,760

C.            2,800

D.            3,840

E.            3,000

17. What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145? A.   144

B.            140

C.            142

D.            148

E.            163