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#### 1)For the following problems, calculate: Scenario:  The economy is bad and a weak demand is likely

###### Math

1)For the following problems, calculate:

1. Scenario:  The economy is bad and a weak demand is likely.  Think about, even in this situation, when a large complex should still be built.

p(s1) = 0.3            p(s2) = 0.7

 s1 s2 EV d1 11 10 10.3 d2 14 6 8.4 P(x) 0.3 0.7

1. Scenario:  We are unable to get a prediction of the demand, so we go with 50/50.  Think about how close EV(d1) is to EV(d2) and how this influences the problem.

P(s1) = 0.5          p(s2) = 0.5

 s1 s2 EV d1 5 -1 2 d2 14 -8 3 P(x) 0.5 0.5

1. Scenario: We are unable to get a prediction of demand, so we go with 50/50.  Think about the high risk involved with d2.

P(s1) = 0.5            p(s2) = 0.5

 s1 s2 EV d1 10 3 6.5 d2 17 -10 3.5 P(x) 0.5 0.5

1. Scenario: We are almost certain of a strong demand, with probability 0.9.  Think about how this influences the cutoffs.

P(s1) = 0.9            p(s2) = 0.1

 s1 s2 EV d1 10 8 9 d2 12 -1 5.5 P(x) 0.9 0.1

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