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Assume you are a foreign exchange trader

Finance

Assume you are a foreign exchange trader. You noticed the following quotes. Spot rate 180-day forward rate 180-day interest rate in Malaysia 180-day interest rate in US : MYR4.00/USD : MYR4.15/USD : 8% per annum : 5% per annum a. Compute the annualised discount or premium on the USD relative to the MYR. (1.5 marks) b. Compute the annualised discount or premium on the MYR relative to the USD. (1.5 marks) C. Is there an incentive for covered-interest arbitrage? Support your answer with calculations. (3 marks) d. Assume: (1) you are willing to borrow USD4,000 or MYR16,000; and (2) there are no transaction costs. Indicate your strategy on how to obtain the covered-interest arbitrage profit in 180 days. Support your answer with calculations.

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Ans : a) Premium = 0.075% , b) Discount = - 0.07229%

   

spot rate

Forward rate

Prem / (disc) (F-S)

Prem/(Disc) %for 180 days

Annualised premium/(disc)

MYR/USD

180 days

4.000

4.15000

0.15000

0.03750

0.07500

USD/MYR

180 days

0.250

0.24096

-0.00904

-0.03614

-0.07229

Ans for part c : Formula for Covered Interest Rate Parity

      S ( 1+ iDomestic) = F ( 1 + iForeign)

i. S is the spot exchange rate between the two currencies = 4.00 MYR/USD

ii. F is the forward exchange rate between the two currencies = 4.15 MYR/USD

iii. iDomestic is the domestic nominal interest rate = 8% or 0.08 (p.a.)

iv. iForeign is the foreign nominal interest rate = 5% or 0.05 (p.a.)

Now, Plug the values

      S ( 1+ iDomestic) = F ( 1 + iForeign)

Or , 4 (1 + 0.08 * 180/360) = F ( 1+ 0.05 * 180 /360)

Or , 4 * 1.04 = F * 1.025

Or , F = 4.0585 ( Expected Price or Should Be price )

But Actual forward Rate is 4.15 MYR/USD , It means $ is a Stronger Currency , So we should Invest in stronger Currency and Borrow in Weaker Currency .

Steps to be followed :

1) Borrow a Notional Amount for 180 days ( Period of forward ) in weaker currency say X (i.e we will pay interest on it)

2) Now Convert Step 1 Amount ( X) at Spot exchange rate i.e. we will now have the other currency in hand say Y.

3) Invest the converted Y amount in the other country for the same period i.e. 180 days ( S1) and Immediately enter into a Forward sell agreement for an amount equal to (Y + int ) = Z on it for 180 days

4) Now It means that after 180 days we will receive Z , which we have already sold in Forward contract and will get a New Amount say P and repay the loan borrowed in step 1 with interest on it say Q .

5) Arbitrage Profit = P - Q

1

Borrow 1,000,000 ( X) MYR @ 8% p.a.

Interest payable on it will be 1,000,000 * 8% * 180 /360 = 40000

Total amount repayable = 1,040,000 (Q)

2

Convert 1,000,000 (NOT 1,040,000) at Spot rate i.e 4 MYR /USD

We will get = 1,000,000 / 4 =

$ 250000 ( Y)

3

Invest the Converted Amt $ 250000 in US @ 5% p.a.

Interest on it = $ 250000*5%*180/360 = $ 6250

3

Enter into a Forward sell agreement for $256250 (Z) ($250000 + 6250 ) at 4.15 MYR/USD ( Since This amount we will recv in 180 days )

4

5

We will receive MYR = $256250 * 4.15 = 1063437.5 MYR (P) for which had entered in forward contract in step 3.

5

Arbitrage Profit = 1063437.5 - 1,040,000 MYR = 23437.5 MYR (P-Q)   

AnS D ) Since I have already proved in point 3 above that what will be the steps , just replace 1,000,000MYR with 16000MYR and rest will come along.

1

Borrow 16000 ( X) MYR @ 8% p.a.

Interest payable on it will be 16000* 8% * 180 /360 = 640

Total amount repayable = 16640 (Q)

2

Convert 16000 (NOT 16640) at Spot rate i.e 4 MYR /USD

We will get = 16000 / 4 = $ 4000 ( Y)

3

Invest the Converted Amt $ 4000 in US @ 5% p.a.

Interest on it = $ 4000 *5%*180/360 = $ 100

3

Enter into a Forward sell agreement for $4100 (Z) ($ 4000 + 100 ) at 4.15 MYR/USD ( Since This amount we will recv in 180 days )

4

5

We will receive MYR = $4100 * 4.15 = 17430 MYR (P) for which had entered in forward contract in step 3.

5

Arbitrage Profit = 17430 - 16640 MYR = 790 MYR (P-Q)