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Homework answers / question archive / Consider the following stocks State Probability Ford Apple recession 0

Consider the following stocks State Probability Ford Apple recession 0

Finance

Consider the following stocks

State Probability Ford Apple
recession 0.2 -5% 15%
normal 0.5 10% 10%
boom 0.3 15% 10%

a. Find the expected return and standard deviation for each stock.

b. Find the covariance and correlation between the two stocks, do you think we are diversifying well by investing in these two stocks?

c. Find the expected return and standard deviation for a portfolio that has 60% invested in Ford and 40% invested in Apple?

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A)

Expected return = summation(Porbability*Return)

For ford Exp return = 0.2*-0.05 + 0.5*0.10 + 0.3*0.15 = -0.01+0.05+0.045 = 8.5%

For Apple Exp return = 0.2*0.15 + 0.5*0.10 + 0.3*0.10= 0.03+0.05+0.03 = 11%

Standard deviation = Sqrt( Proabability* (Return-Expected Return)^2)

For ford= SQRT( 0.2*(-0.05-0.085)^2+0.5*(0.1-0.085)^2+0.3*(0.15-0.085)^2)

=SQRT(0.2*0.018225+ 0.5*0.000225+0.3*0.004225)

=SQRT(0.005025)

Standard deviation ford= 7.08%

For Apple= SQRT( 0.2*(0.15-0.11)^2+0.5*(0.1-0.11)^2+0.3*(0.10-0.11)^2)

=SQRT(0.2*0.0016+ 0.5*0.0001+0.3*0.0001)

=SQRT(0.0004)

Standard deviation ford= 2.00%

B)

Covariance = SuM(Probability*Product of deviations of ford,Apple))

Deviation= Return-Expected return

Covariance= 0.2*(-0.05-0.085) *(0.15-0.11) + 0.5*(0.1-0.085)*(0.1-0.11) + 0.3*(0.15-0.085)*(0.1-0.11)

=-0.00108-0.000075-0.000195

Covariance= -0.00135

Correlation= Covariance/ Standard deviation of ford* standard deviation of apple

= -0.00135/(0.0708*0.02)

correlation = -0.95

Yes, we are diversifying with these stocks because the negative correlation makes them more efficient risk gets reduced and this will be justified in the next problem

C)

Expected return = Weight1* ford return + weight2* apple return

=0.6*0.085+ 0.4*0.11

=0.051+0.044

Expected return = 9.5%

Standard deviation=(SQRT(Weight1*Standard deviation of ford)^2+(Weight2* standard deviation of apple)^2+(2*weight1*weight2*Covariance))

=SQRT((0.6*0.0708)^2+(0.4*0.02)^2+(2*0.6*0.4*-0.00135))

=SQRT(0.0018045504+0.000064-0.000648)

=SQRT(0.0012205504)

Portfolio standard deviaiton =3.49%

Thus it is proved that risk reduced with the negative correlation and addiiton of weights.