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Stacy Picone is an aggressive bond trader who likes to speculate on interest rate swings

Accounting

Stacy Picone is an aggressive bond trader who likes to speculate on interest rate swings. Market interest rates are currently at 11.0%, but she expects them to fall to 9.0% within a year. As a result, Stacy is thinking about buying either a 25-year, zero-coupon bond or a 20-year, 9.5% bond. (Both bonds have $1,000 par values and carry the same agency rating.) Assuming that Stacy wants to maximize capital gains, which of the two issues should she select? What if she wants to maximize the total return (interest income and capital gains) from her investment? Why did one issue provide better capital gains than the other? Based on the duration of each bond, which one should be more price volatile? 
The capital gain of the zero-coupon bond is $ 
. (Round to the nearest cent.) 
 

pur-new-sol

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The formula to calculate price of a zero coupon bond is:

Price of zero coupon bond= Par value/ (1+ interest rate)^ time till maturity

Par value= 1000

Interest rate =11%

Time till maturity= 25

So,

 

= 1000/ (1+ 11%)^ 25

=  $73.61

 

Interest rate falls= 9%

 Price of zero coupon bond= Par value/ (1+ interest rate)^ time till maturity

= 1000/ (1+ 9%)^ 24

=    $ 126.40 

 

Capital gain= $ 126.40 - $73.61

= $52.79

 

The formula to calculate price of a coupon bond is:

Price= C*[(1- (1+ r)^ -n)/ r]+ Par value/ (1+ r)^ n

here,

C= coupon payment

r= Interest rate

n= Time till maturity

 

So,

At present using an interest rate of 11%, price of this bond is:

Price= (1000* 9.5%)* [(1- (1+ 11%)^ -20)/ 11%]+ 1000/ (1+ 11%)^ 20

= 95* 7.96333+ 124.0339

=  $ 880.55 

 

Now, when after one year, interest rates drop to 9%, the price of this bond becomes:

Price= (1000* 9.5%)* [(1- (1+ 9%)^ -19)/ 9%]+ 1000/ (1+ 9%)^ 19

= 95* 8.95011+ 194.4897

=    $1,044.75 

 

Capital gain= 1044.75- 880.55

=  $164.20 

 

Now, in terms of dollar return, 9.5% bond provides a higher capital gain but a better way is to look at percentage returns which is more in the case of zero coupon bond.

Even if an income of $95 is added to calculate the total return, in percentage terms, zero coupon bond still provides a better return. Percentage return from zero coupon bond is 71.72% (52.79/ 73.61). Percentage return from 9.5% bond is 29.44%(($164.20  + 95)/  $ 880.55 )

One issue provides better returns than the other because of varying interest rate sensitivity. Different bonds show different price sensitivity towards interest rate fluctuations. In general higher a bond's maturity and lower its coupon rate, higher is the price sensitivity in percentage terms.

Out of the two bonds zero coupon bond has a higher duration and therefore, should be more price volatile.