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Women’s Labor and the Economy Analytical Assignment #1 Due Thursday Oct

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Women’s Labor and the Economy Analytical Assignment #1

Due Thursday Oct. 15^th  (trust me you don’t want to start it the night before J)

The assignment has three parts. In part one (Facts) you will gather data on a given topic for two different groups for two different time periods (the past (1990)) and today (2017 or later); In part two (Potential Explanation) you will offer a potential economic explanation (from class, your textbook, or the readings) that would be consistent with the facts/data you gathered in part one; In part three (Evidence) you will collect additional data to support or discredit your potential explanation in part two.

For this assignment you with need to choose one of the following topics (Marriage, Divorce, or Fertility), one of the statistics and one of the 16 comparison groups:

Marriage/Dating:

   Statistics: Percent never married, Percent not/never married within a given age band, Percent ever married, Age at 1^st marriage, Marriage rate

1. Hispanic American Women (or People of Spanish Origins) vs. White Women

2. Asian American Women vs. White Women

3. Women in one US state (or city/MSA) vs. women in another US state (or city/MSA)

4. Female High School Graduates vs. Female College Graduates

5. American Women vs. Women in a different country

6. Men and Women in the same marriage/dating market (i.e male college graduates and female college graduates, men and women in the same city/MSA, Hispanic men and Hispanic women or men and women in India) [if you do this one your explanation must be differences in sex ratios for the relevant marriage market over time]

Divorce:

Statistics: Percent of first marriages than end in or are predicted to end in divorce (maybe by a given number of years -i.e. odds of lasting 10 years), Divorce Rate, or Percent ever/currently divorced (conditional on being married):

7. African American Women vs. White Women

8. Hispanic American Women (or People of Spanish Origins) vs. White Women

9. Female High School Graduates vs. College Graduates

10. American Women vs. Women in a different country

Fertility:Statistics: Fertility Rate (maybe for a given age band), Number of kids per household, Age at 1^st birth, or Total Fertility Rate

11. Hispanic American Women (or People of Spanish Origins) vs. African American Women

12. Asian American Women vs. White Women

13. Female High School Graduates vs. Female College Graduates

14. Female College Graduate vs. Female Postsecondary degree holders

15. American Women vs. Women in a different country

16. Women in one US state (or city/MSA) vs. women in another US state (or city/MSA)

Part 1 (Facts): Once you have chosen your topic, statistic and one of the comparison groups you will need to gather data from a legitimate government or academic source (Wikipedia is not a legitimate source nor is your textbook but both may help you find original data).  The current data should all be available on-line. For the older data you may need to visit the library which should have copies of the Statistical Abstract of the United States and other sources. I want the data to be as comparable as possible- so if you were looking at fertility rates (American Women vs. Women in India) you would want to get fertility rates for women in the same age category in 1980 and in 2017 or if you are using percent never married you would need that measure for both the early and late years for both groups. You will need to attach a copy of your data to the end of your assignment and clearly indicate/highlight the numbers that you used. (You may have to use more than one number (maybe you need to construct a rate) if so include your calculations with notes). Also include your sources and data construction notes at the bottom of your data table. 

Your older data should come from 1990 and your recent data should be from 2017 or later. [I will take off points for data from the wrong/different time period.] I have listed some valid data sources below. (If you have questions about the validity of a data source, talk to me or e-mail me for clarification- don’t ask on the discussion board because tracking down valid data is a key part of the assignment):

Some Examples of Valid Data Sources:

U.S. Census    The World Factbook               Survey of Income and Program Participation

Statistical Abstract of the United States        National Vital Statistics Report         

Current Population Survey                             American Community Survey

After gathering your current and historical facts- tell me, in percentage terms, which group changed more over the time period (and in what direction) and which group is currently higher.

Part 2 (Potential Explanation): Once you know and have reported the facts, offer an explanation that is consistent with the trends you have documented. Your explanation must come from the set presented in class or your readings. Briefly explain the theory behind your explanation. Graphical analysis is also required if you choose marriage as a topic. Be sure to discuss and/or show graphically how your explanation should impact both subgroups over time (i.e it should increase/decrease more for one group than the other or have increased for one group and stayed the same for the other) to be consistent with the facts in part 1. Also discuss what your potential explanation predicts about the situation in 2017 (i.e. group A should be higher/lower than group B in 2017).

Part 3 (Evidence): Now gather additional data to check your explanation (i.e. if you said that there were fewer men in the relevant marriage market for one subgroup then you would have to provide data on the size of the marriage market and how it has changed over time or if you offered up changes in education as your explanation you need to find data on educational obtainment (measured in the same way) for both groups over time).  Be sure to provide the source/s for this data and attach this data and any calculation notes to the end of your assignment as well. Again, you want the data to be as comparable as possible – in particular you want to use the exact same years and groups as you used in part 1. Also if your data included wages or income you want to adjust the data for inflation (otherwise everything will always look higher in the future). Please compute percent changes here as well.

Once you have gathered and shown this additional data, answer the following questions: “Does this data contradict or support your explanation from part 2?” Why or why not? Be sure to discuss both changes over time and the current situation [Note- it is fine if your data contradicts or partially contradicts (maybe one went up and one went down as you predicted but the current situation doesn’t align) your explanation. After all you only offered a hypothesis.]

I have included a sample assignment (where I made up some of the data) to give you a sense of what I am expecting.

Sample Assignment - Topic: Marriage, Statistic: Age at 1^st marriage 1990 vs. Today African American Women vs. White Women

Part 1- Facts:

Percent Never Married

	1990	2017	Percent Change
African American Women	15	36	140%
White Women	9	16	78%

Source: U.S. Decennial Census (1890-2000); American Community Survey (2018).

Note: Sample is adults 25 and older

The share never married has increased over time for both groups, but the increase is much greater for African American than for White women (140% vs. 78%). Currently African American Women are more than twice as likely to have never married as White women.

Part 2- Potential Explanation:

Perhaps women have become more financially independent over time, thus they get smaller benefits from economies of scale within the marriage than they did in the past. (or I could argue that financial independence reduces the benefits of specialization and exchange -assume that he specializes in market work) For this explanation to be consistent with the above facts the economic conditions for African American women should have increased more than for White Women since they experienced a larger decline in marriage. Additionally, for this explanation to work it must be the case that currently African American should have higher earnings since they are more likely to be single.

(I would have to insert the specialization and exchange graph here and show the smaller gains associated with higher female wages, or I could also include a supply and demand marriage market analysis and show that the supply of women should fall as female earnings increase – depending on which explanation I choose.)

Part 3 (Evidence):

To test the explanation in part two, I gathered data on average hourly wages (adjusted for inflation) for African American and White women.

Average hourly wage for women (Totally made up numbers)

	1990	2017	Percent Change
African American Women	$8.00	$12.00	50%
White Women	$10.00	$14.23	42.3%

Source: 1990 and 2014 March Current Population Survey. Tables 113 and 157b.

Note: the 1980 data includes women working part-time whereas the 2017 data

is limited to full time workers. [I would take off a point for this mismatch]

See notes to show how the 1990 data was adjusted to be in 2017 dollars

Average hourly wages went up more for African American women than for White women (50% vs. 42.3%), which is consistent with a larger reduction in marriage for African American women (but the relative increase in wages was small when compared to the relative change in marriage). However, current hourly wages for African American women are lower than the wages for White women which would suggest that African American women should be more likely to marry than white women which contradicts what I found in part 1.  Difference in wages between White and African American women can explain some of the trends but not the current difference in marriage across these groups.