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Suppose you observe the investment performance of 500 portfolio managers for ten years and rank them by investment returns during each year

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Suppose you observe the investment performance of 500 portfolio managers for ten years and rank them by investment returns during each year. After ten years, you find that 10 of the funds have investment returns that place the fund in the top half of the sample in each and every year of your sample. Such consistency of performance indicates to you that these must be the funds whose managers are in fact, skilled, and you invest your money in these funds. Is your conclusion warranted?