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Homework answers / question archive / Estimate the model that predicts wins from (grand mean centered) runs scored and (grand mean centered) runs allowed

Estimate the model that predicts wins from (grand mean centered) runs scored and (grand mean centered) runs allowed

Statistics

Estimate the model that predicts wins from (grand mean centered) runs scored and (grand mean centered) runs allowed. {Note: Grand mean centering was used to aid in the interpretation of the intercept.}

(a) What is the predicted model?
(b) Do the coefficients have the expected signs?
(c) What is the interpretation of the intercept? Does this make sense?
(d) What is the predicted number of wins for the Orioles? The Twins?
(e) How many wins would we expect from a team that scores 10 runs more than the average, but allows 20 runs more than the average?

See attached Word file for a cleaner version of the question. The data is included below in SPSS format, as well as in Excel. The output is attached with the solution. Note that I have included additional variables that may be interesting in their own right. Feel free to explore.

pur-new-sol

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 The predicted model is yhat = 80.98 + (0.085) gmc_rsc - (0.108) gmc_rall.
gmc_rsc is grand mean centered runs scored and similarly, gmc_rall is grand mean centered runs allowed. Grand mean centering aids in the interpretation of the intercept. If we did not center these predictors, the intercept would represent a team that scored zero runs and allowed zero runs, which obviously makes no sense.
(b) Yes. We expect that runs scored would have a positive relationship with wins and that runs allowed would have a negative relationship with wins. An increase in the runs a team scores should increase wins, while allowing more runs would lead to fewer wins.
(c) The intercept could be thought of as the following: The expected number of wins for a team who scores an average number of runs, and allows an average number of runs. In our example, this team would be expected to win about 81 games. This most definitely makes sense. Given that teams play 162 games, we would expect an average team to win around half of them (i.e., 81 wins).
(d) The predicted number of wins for the Orioles can be calculated as follows:

yhat = 80.98 + (0.085)(-18) - (0.108)(113) = 67.25.
So, we expect the Orioles to win around 67 games. (They actually won 70 games. So, we might say that they performed better than expected based on the number of runs they scored and the number of runs they allowed.)

The predicted number of wins for the Twins can be calculated as follows:

yhat = 80.98 + (0.085)(15) - (0.108)(-103) = 93.379.
So, we expect the Twins to win around 93 games. (They actually won 96.)

Both of these predictions are pretty close (within 3 wins) of how the teams actually performed. This is an indication of a pretty good model: one that predicts fairly accurately.
(e) A team that scores 10 more runs than average, but allows 20 runs more than average would be expected to win around 80 games. Calculation is below.

yhat = 80.98 + (0.085)(10) - (0.108)(20) = 79.67.
This would indicate that although they score more runs than average, because they allow more runs than the average team, they would be predicted to win less than half of their games. From a practical point of view, this indicates that pitching may be more valuable than hitting. For each additional run a team scores above the average, we would expect an increase of 0.085 wins, while if a team allows 1 more run than average, we would expect a team to lose 0.108 additional games.

Please see Word doc for a clearer version of the solution. SPSS model output is attached as well.