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Risk and Knowledge, H21 Project Part 3 SUBMISSION FORM Name: Student number: Due date: Week 17, Monday 10 May (15:00) Grade value: 10% Length: 3-4 pages (regular font, double spaced) plus reference page

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Risk and Knowledge, H21 Project Part 3 SUBMISSION FORM Name: Student number: Due date: Week 17, Monday 10 May (15:00) Grade value: 10% Length: 3-4 pages (regular font, double spaced) plus reference page. Submission details: Via Léa (Assignments and Dropbox). Make sure to keep and save a backup copy of your submission. Late submission penalty: 1 point per day deducted off the earned grade. ** Fill in the appropriate content where the square brackets and ellipses points are located in yellow highlight (i.e. […]). Please remove the yellow highlight from your own text. Other text may be left as is. *** Where there is an EITHER-OR option, please remove the option you are not using. **** See the assignment Guidelines and the Sample Submission for more information. ***** Keep a copy of this assignment. You must do and submit your own, independent, original work. Title: The Risk of Harm, Loss or Injury from […]: Assessing Probability Claims 1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose This short paper will assess claims about the probability of harm, injury or loss resulting from […]. Generally speaking, claims about the probability of harm, loss or injury from commercial air travel are based on experience or on study and research or a combination of both. Probability claims express a judgment about how likely or unlikely it is that something will happen like suffering harm, loss or injury from […] How do we know if the claims and judgements we make are reliable or valid? This paper will assess the reliability and validity of probability claims and judgements in specific reference to commercial travel. 1.2 Method This assessment of probability claims and judgements will rely on the method proposed by Mark Battersby (2016) for “evaluating judgements of probability”. This method entails that we ask four questions about a probability claim or judgement as a basis for determining its validity and reliability: What exactly is being claimed? How good is the evidence? What other information is relevant? Are relevant fallacies avoided? In asking these questions, we are better able to assess the quality of claims and judgements about how likely or unlikely it is that an unwanted future event or circumstance will occur. In this paper, probability claims will be assessed using three of these four questions: 1. What exactly is being claimed? 2. How good is the evidence? 3. Are relevant fallacies avoided? 2. Definitions and Explanations: Probability Claims and Judgements A probability claim is a statement about whether an event or circumstance is likely or unlikely to occur. Drawing on Battersby (2016, 218) we may say that a probability claim expresses a judgement (or a determination or estimation) about the chances of an event or circumstance occurring. Assessments of 1 20210509025438part_3 Risk and Knowledge, H21 Project Part 3 SUBMISSION FORM probability claims and judgements inquire into their validity and reliability. Probability claims may be expressed numerically in the form of statistical proportions like ratios, percentages and odds. Or, probability claims may be expressed in the form of narrative or stories conveyed in writing, in oral speech and in image. 3. Assessing probability claims and judgements about the risk of harm, injury or loss from […] 3.1 What exactly is being claimed? In this section, I will present the terms of two probability claims: one claim from a “socio-cultural” source and one claim from a (scientific or governmental) source. These two claims will be the focus of the next two parts of the assessment. 3.1.1 Socio-cultural source […] EITHER 3.1.2 Techno-scientific source […] OR 3.1.2 Governmental source […] 3.2 How good is the evidence? In this section, I will discuss the quality of evidence used in probability claims and judgements. I will be comparing and contrasting the quality of evidence that may be used in claims from socio-cultural sources and from (scientific or governmental) sources using the sourced mentioned in 3.1. 3.2.1 Socio-cultural sources […] EITHER 3.2.2 Scientific sources The claim in the scientific source in 3.1 […] OR 3.2.2 Governmental sources The probability claim from the governmental source in 3.1 is based on information gathered […] 3.3 Are relevant fallacies avoided? 2 20210509025438part_3 Risk and Knowledge, H21 Project Part 3 SUBMISSION FORM In this section, I will address the fallacies that are sometimes found in probability claims. Battersby presents seven fallacies that may be found explicitly or implicitly in probability claims and judgements. I will discuss three of the seven fallacies and state whether they are present or avoided in the probability claims I presented in 3.1. 3.3.1 Socio-cultural sources […] EITHER 3.3.2 Scientific sources […] OR 3.3.2 Governmental sources […] 4. Conclusion Probability claims and judgements are commonplace. We make them ourselves on a daily basis about everyday circumstances and we make them about occasional and exceptional events and happenings that have a certain likelihood of occurrence. We also encounter the probability claims of others on a frequent basis. It is important to have some criteria for decided on the validity and reliability of probability claims, our own or those of others. This paper has addressed itself to some claims and judgments on the probability of harm, loss or injury that may result from […]. It has assessed claims from two types of sources – socio-cultural and [scientific or governmental] – from the standpoints of the quality of evidence and the resort to fallacies of logic. Claims and judgements from both of these types of sources can meet standards of reliability and validity and can fall short in meeting such standards. References Battersby, Mark. “Probability and Judgement”. Chapter 12 in Is That a Fact? A Field Guide to Statistical and Scientific Information. Second Edition. Peterborough, Ontario: Broadview Press, [2010], 2016. In “Risk and Knowledge” Course Reader. Brian Aboud, ed. H21. ++END++ 3 20210509025438part_3 Risk and Knowledge, H21 Sample submission, Part 3 Note: in this sample paper, claims from all three types of sources are discussed. For student submissions, however, claims from only TWO sources will be discussed: one claim from a sociocultural source and one claim from EITHER a techno-scientific OR a governmental source. Title: The Risk of harm, loss or injury from commercial air travel: Assessing probability claims 1. Introduction Purpose This short paper will assess claims about the probability of harm, injury or loss resulting from commercial air travel. Generally speaking, claims about the probability of harm, loss or injury from commercial air travel are based on experience or on study and research or a combination of both. Probability claims express a judgment about how likely or unlikely it is that something will happen like suffering harm, loss or injury from an aircraft mishap or accident or some other mishap associated with commercial air travel (e.g. loss of luggage, flight cancellation). How do we know if the claims and judgements we make are reliable or valid? This paper will assess the reliability and validity of probability claims and judgements in specific reference to commercial travel. This assessment of probability claims and judgements will rely on the method proposed by Mark Battersby (2016) for “evaluating judgements of probability”. This method entails that we ask four questions about a probability claim or judgement as a basis for determining its validity and reliability: What exactly is being claimed? How good is the evidence? What other information is relevant? Are relevant fallacies avoided? In asking these questions, we are better able to assess the quality of claims and judgements about how likely or unlikely it is that an unwanted future event or circumstance will occur. In this paper, probability claims will be assessed using three of these four questions: 1. What exactly is being claimed? 2. How good is the evidence? 3. Are relevant fallacies avoided? 2. Probability Claims and Judgements A probability claim is a statement about whether an event or circumstance is likely or unlikely to occur. Drawing on Battersby (2016, 218) we may say that a probability claim expresses a judgement (or a determination or estimation) about the chances of an event or circumstance occurring. Assessments of probability claims and judgements inquire into their validity and reliability. Probability claims may be expressed numerically in the form of statistical proportions like ratios, percentages and odds. Or, probability claims may be expressed in the form of narrative or stories conveyed in writing, in oral speech and in image. 3. Assessing probability claims and judgements about the risk of harm, injury or loss from commercial air travel 3.1 What exactly is being claimed? In this section, I will present the terms of two probability claims: one claim from a “socio-cultural” source and one claim from a (scientific or governmental) source. These two claims will be the focus of the next two parts of the assessment. 3.1.1 Socio-cultural source In an article at the “Simple Flying” website, posted on the “Flight Aware” website, there is a claim to the effect that an American Airlines airplane would likely have malfunctioned and have faced a serious situation of danger had the pilot not aborted the take off. The circumstance of risk was caused by an airplane mechanic’s deliberate tampering with the airplanes monitoring systems. At the mechanic’s court trial, it was stated that the flight could have ended in catastrophe had the plane taken off. The probability claim is presented in the form of an assessment by the pilot and prosecuting attorneys as to the likelihood of harm if the plane had been airborne. The probabilities explicitly presented have to 1 R&K _Project Part 3_Sample submission_H21 (fin4dis).doc Risk and Knowledge, H21 Sample submission, Part 3 do with the likelihood of an accident or disaster had the plane in question taken off. These probabilities are not expressed in the form of quantitative values, but in the form of an expectation based on the pilot’s reading of the airplane’s monitors relating to airspeed, altitude and pitch. There is an additional probability implied in the article and that is the probability of plane mishaps occurring as a result of tampering by airplane mechanics. EITHER 3.1.2 Techno-scientific source In a scientific journal article entitled “Mapping potential airplane hazards and risks using airline traffic data”, published in The Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, there is a probability claim to the effect that the risk of harm or loss from an airplane crash is increased depending on where in an urban area the crash occurs. The risk of harm and the probability of a crash is increased by the density of flight paths over urban areas. OR 3.1.2 Governmental source In a document by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada entitled Key Safety Issues in Canada’s Transportation System, a key risk identified in respect of aviation travel is that of aircraft collision resulting from runway incursions. The document indicates that there remains a relatively high probability of aircraft collision as a result of runway incursions if steps are not taken reduce the likelihood of that occurrence. 3.2 How good is the evidence? In this section, I will discuss the quality of evidence used in probability claims and judgements. I will be comparing and contrasting the quality of evidence that may be used in claims from socio-cultural sources and from (scientific or governmental) sources using the sourced mentioned in 3.1. 3.2.1 Socio-cultural sources In socio-cultural sources the range of types of evidence can be quite varied and wide. The evidence used to make probability claims can range from hearsay and personal experience to statistical sample data. One probability claim from the socio-cultural source in 3.1 relies on experiential evidence from the airplane pilot who stated in court that the error messages he saw on the airplane monitor led him to believe that there was a high level of danger to passengers and crew if the plane had taken off. Another probability claim, made by prosecuting attorneys at the mechanic’s trial, states that the kind of tampering that the mechanic carried out could have “very easily” caused a “severe incident”. Probability claims made on the basis of experiential evidence may be unreliable because they may be too impressionistic. Probability claims made by prosecuting attorneys may be based on biased evidence since they are making claims in order to strengthen their arguments in favor of conviction of the accused. EITHER 3.2.2 Scientific sources The claim in the scientific source in 3.1 is based on evidence gathered in an academic study. The quality of the evidence depends on how thorough, complete and representative the data collected is. The study makes use of flight path data to produce the hazard maps which indicate degrees of probable harm. The reliability of the data must be assessed by other researchers, but it appears to have been gathered systematically and to be relevant to the study’s objectives. OR 3.2.2 Governmental sources The probability claim from the governmental source in 3.1 is based on information gathered by the TSBC from airports and the records kept by airports about runway incursions. This appears to be very reliable evidence from which to make a claim about the likelihood of collision from that type of incident 2 R&K _Project Part 3_Sample submission_H21 (fin4dis).doc Risk and Knowledge, H21 Sample submission, Part 3 3.3 Are relevant fallacies avoided? In this section, I will address the fallacies that are sometimes found in probability claims. Battersby presents seven fallacies that may be found explicitly or implicitly in probability claims and judgements. I will discuss three of the seven fallacies and state whether they are present or avoided in the probability claims I presented in 3.1. 3.3.1 Socio-cultural sources Probability claims about commercial air travel mishaps and accidents can sometimes be made in ways that reflect the fallacies of “representativeness” and “vividness” as defined by Battersby. For example, the fallacy of representativeness is evidenced in claims of the likelihood of airplane malfunction or accidents based on previous occurrences. That is, the past occurrences of airplane accidents, especially spectacular or high-profile accidents stand as evidence of the very perilous situations that can arise when something goes wrong. These occurrences serve as evidence of the level of risk and the seriousness of harm that can accompany an accident. However, the question arises as to whether these past occurrences are representative, whether in number or kind, of the likelihood of damage or disaster. The instances of serious events that receive extensive media coverage may not be representative of probable events that may occur for the totality of commercial flights. Moreover, prior events may each be too unique in their circumstance to constitute a representative sample on which to base a general claim of high or medium probability for all air flights. This problem of representativeness in some probability claims, is closely connected to the resort to “vividness” as a basis for claims. The fallacy of vividness is evident when claims about the danger of air travel and the probability of mishap or disaster draws on the experience and the memory of highly publicized events. Here, the resort or vividness is not necessarily due to the direct or immediate personal experience of the events, but to living through them even at a distance, following them in the media and learning about them though documentary sources that highlight the perilousness of the incidents. (296 words) EITHER 3.3.2 Scientific sources In the scientific source mentioned in 3.1, there is no evidence of any of the fallacies or flaws of probabilistic reasoning presented in Battersby. So, it can be said that fallacies are avoided. For instance, the fallacy of “overgeneralization’ is possible if the claim were made that there is always a high probability of severe harm when an airplane’s flight path passes over a densely populated urban area. However, this is avoided by introducing the need to take account of variable other than population density to calculate the probability of harm from those particular flight paths. The correlation of flight path and population density may lead to the overgeneralization that such flight paths always entail a probability of severe harm. However, that overgeneralization is avoided by taking account of other variables like pilot experience and weather conditions. OR 3.3.2 Governmental sources In the TSBC document Key Safety Issues, fallacies of reasoning are avoided. One fallacy to which regulators could resort in dealing with occurrences like runway collisions due to incursion or runway overruns is the “Gambler’s Fallacy”. In this fallacy, a conclusion about a probable future occurrence may be based on past non-representative runs. For instance, it may be concluded that because there had been a sequence of unlikely runway events in the short run, say the past month, there will not be any more in the longer run and the probability of a like event in the next year is very low. 4. Conclusion Probability claims and judgements are commonplace. We make them ourselves on a daily basis about everyday circumstances and we make them about occasional and exceptional events and happenings that have a certain likelihood of occurrence. We also encounter the probability claims of others on a frequent basis. It is important to have some criteria for decided on the validity and reliability of probability claims, our own or those of others. This paper has addressed itself to some claims and judgments on the probability of harm, loss or injury that may result from commercial air travel. It has assessed claims from two types of sources – socio-cultural and [scientific or 3 R&K _Project Part 3_Sample submission_H21 (fin4dis).doc Risk and Knowledge, H21 Sample submission, Part 3 governmental] – from the standpoints of the quality of evidence and the resort to fallacies of logic. Claims and judgements from both of these types of sources can meet standards of reliability and validity and can fall short in meeting such standards. References Asgary, Ali et. al. “Mapping potential airplane hazards and risks using airline traffic data.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 13 (2015): 276-280. Battersby, Mark. “Probability and Judgement”. Chapter 12 in Is That a Fact? A Field Guide to Statistical and Scientific Information. Second Edition. Peterborough, Ontario: Broadview Press, [2010], 2016. In “Risk and Knowledge” Course Reader. Brian Aboud, ed. H21. Bewicke, Henry. “American Airlines Mechanic Jailed Following Aircraft Sabotage.” Simple Flying, 5 March 2020. In “Squawks”, Flight Aware website. https://flightaware.com/, Accessed 23 February 2021. Canada, Government of Canada., Transportation Safety Board of Canada. Key Safety Issues in Canada’s Transportation System: 2018 Watchlist. Transportation Safety Board of Canada, 2018. ++END++ 4 R&K _Project Part 3_Sample submission_H21 (fin4dis).doc Risk and Knowledge, Humanities 345-101, H21 Project Part 1 Name: Abd Al Rahman Al Kabani Student number: 2036811 Title: 1. Account from current knowledge People adopt different behaviours and lifestyles as time goes by depending on their geographical locations and influence from others. However, they can cause adverse effects to an individual who continually overdoes them without regulations and control. People become predisposed to risks and detrimental harm associated with taking up behaviors and lifestyles like drug use, extreme sports, smoking, and conventional sports. Once drugs like cocaine are abused, and they weaken peoples' immune systems, exposing them to illnesses. Drugs also have adverse effects on mental capacity and even lead to brain damage. Additionally, continued abuse of drugs exposes individuals to poor decision-making relating to their workplace or personal affairs. Extreme sports like surfing and ski diving are characterized by high speeds associated with high risks too. When sports face anomalies like mechanical issues, one can face fatal spinal and brain injuries due to the accident's impact. Individuals can also die from injuries inflicted by accidents. Bones also get broken when an extreme sports accident occurs since the impact is usually huge due to the high speeds. Conventional sports include football, tennis, and athletics. Risks and harm associated with these sports include concussions often caused by a collision between two players. The impact can eventually lead to brain damage and career shutdown. 2. Summary of recent news reporting Article 1: The most significant percentage of drug abusers is the youth, often coined as "tomorrow's future." Drugs lead to addiction such that an individual cannot perform any task delegated to him without getting intoxicated with drugs like cocaine and smoking. They become so tied Risk and Knowledge, Humanities 345-101, H21 Project Part 1 into the abuse, which may affect the organization's results or family issues back at home. Research done in Arak University of Medical students in 2016 showed that most students who faced poor economic status were stressed (Ranjbaran et al., 2018). Drug abuse is often pushed by family issues and peer pressure from friends at their workplace or home. The research further unearthed that drug addiction was attributed to family struggles and poor economic backgrounds. Drug addiction is the prevalence of seeking drugs with the best means possible. The addiction leads to psychological complications, which later lead to a high rate of mortality. Drug addiction also exposes adolescents and young people to adverse mental health issues where college students are the most vulnerable. Recent reports about how the young have been exposed to a high prevalence rate of drug addiction have been hitting the globe. Since treating addicts is almost impossible, drug consumption and context are provided before using them, thus creating awareness to the abusers. Article 2: Extreme sports have gained fame within the last decade or so. The sport is very addictive despite it being ranked among the most dangerous sports in the world. The media has labeled rock climbers and high altitude jumpers as "adrenaline junkies," which sums up their addiction to the hazardous sport (Heirene et al., 2016). Psychological and behavioral aspects attributed to the addition of the sport include craving for the sport, which may be a death trap of their own. Rock climbing, which is one of the extreme sports, is very addictive. Rock climbers experience withdrawal symptoms when they are not in the sport compared to individuals who face behavior and lifestyle addictions. Extreme sports continue to grow despite the risks of physical injuries or even death. Risk and Knowledge, Humanities 345-101, H21 Project Part 1 The article opens up readers' minds to visualize the detrimental effects of the addiction to extreme sporting activities like sky diving and rock climbing. These sports are practiced in places that pose a massive threat to their lives. For instance, a skydiver whose equipment gets faulty while onboard is at much risk of breaking his bones or even dying compared to any other sport. This article discusses an occurrence of a risky event like rock climbing and its adverse risks and harm. References: Heirene, R. M., Shearer, D., Roderique-Davies, G., & Mellalieu, S. D. (2016). Addiction in extreme sports: An exploration of withdrawal states in rock climbers. Journal of behavioral addictions, 5(2), 332-341. Ranjbaran, M., Mohammadshahi, F., Mani, S., & Karimy, M. (2018). Risk factors for addiction potential among college students. International Journal of Preventive Medicine, 9(1), 17. 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM Name: Abd Al Rahman Al Kabani Student number: 2036811 The Report may be submitted in table format or in narrative format. The Table Format is provided first, and the Narrative Format second. Please delete from the final submission the format you are NOT using. Make sure to complete the title using your own topic choice. Due date: Week 8, Thursday 11 March (day end) Grade value: 15% Length: 3-4 pages, 650-750 words (regular font, double spaced) plus reference page. Submission details: Via Léa (Assignments and Dropbox). Make sure to keep and save a backup copy of your submission. Late submission penalty: 1 point per day deducted off the earned grade. Narrative Format (may be modified if you prefer a different presentation aesthetic) The Risk of harm, loss or injury from (…): Description from sources in two domains of information production and diffusion 1. Identification and definition: Who? 1.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) The identifiers of the risks are members of NCAA who handle athletes in colleges. They do this by enforcing rules of the various sports which helps in avoiding occurrence of some risks. It equips the student-athletes with skills needed to be effective in the field and avoid instances of major injuries. 2. Media One of the identifiers is the firm preparing the playing field or checking the equipment being used for sports. When the firm ensures that, for instance, the playing field is well prepared, the 1 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM probability of people getting harmed is minimized. Also, when the equipment used in playing extreme and conventional sports, such as bikes and skate board, are checked keenly before use, there may be no occurrence of any injury. Leaders of the different associations that players are from are identifiers since they are responsible for the safety of the equipment their layers are using. 1.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) It is an organization that teams up with public and private sectors to control the use of illegal drugs (“Controlled Substances,” 2020). 2. Sport Canada The organization invests the funds received from the Canadian government in national athletes and sporting events. It ensures that all the needed resources for an event are present hence ensuring that, for instance, healthcare provider for providing first aid, is present during a sports event. 2. Identification and definition: What? 2.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association The organization consists of experts in sports and they are aware of the indicators of risks. Therefore, they recommend the rules to be implemented to avoid the risks. It has members, for 2 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM example athletic directors, with years of experience in sports ensuring that the regulations they intend to enforce will yield positive outcomes.it informs the students of instances that could cause injury and thus they should avoid certain behaviors. 2. Media Different firms hold competitions on sports especially in college. The athletic department is responsible for issues to do with sports in the college and thus it has enough knowledge on this. The knowledge is acquired from experience and from experiences of other colleagues in sports which are shared in social media and the internet. Leaders in sports associations have gained enough experience to understand the possible risks. They also using reading materials from the internet to learn from the failures and successes of other people. 2.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) OCS understands the risks associated with taking illegal drugs and this is why it is committed in working with different companies in fighting the sale and distribution of the illegal drugs. 2. Sport Canada Sport Canada engages with different organizations because it supports sports in Canada. It provides resources in funding sport events and it engages with players or their leaders to understand the potential risks. Thus, the members in sport Canada are aware why certain resources are needed in sport events and why the preparations need to be effective. 3 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM 3. Informational form or format: 3.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association Media The members of NCAA include the health and safety personnel and thus, as they are in meetings, they address risks in sports which are then conveyed to the student-athletes through the sports information directors, coaches, and athletic directors (“NCAA,” n.d.). These are people in the NCAA team. 2. Media Newspapers, magazines and articles are published to provide information on risks in sports and use of drugs. “Addiction in extreme sports: An exploration of withdrawal states in rock climbers” and “Risk factors for addiction potential among college students” are articles found online through Gale which discuss risks in sports and addiction (Heirene et al, 2016; Ranjbaran et al, 2018). 3.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) It communicates through its website to inform people of its activities and give any updates. Also sometimes the stories from its activities are captured in news and they are broadcasted for all people within the country to understand its regulations. 2. Sport Canada 4 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM Sport Canada addresses risks verbally through media and its members. People write articles about the activities of Sport Canada hence communicating to different people indirectly. 4. Terms of identification and definition 4.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association The sources of risks which could lead one into getting injured are performance pressures, time demands and coaching style (Kroshus, n.d.). Risk behaviors are encouraged when a person is harassed or when they are exposed to violence. Other risks are death and concussion. 2. Media It indicates that people engage in drugs, risk behaviors, because of stress or peer pressure. Addiction is another risk. 4.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) The risk identified is addition to drugs. 2. Sport Canada It indicates that athlete injury is a risk that would end one’s career. 5. Probability claims: statement of claim 5 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM 5.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association When risk behaviors are not well managed, they can lead a person into substance abuse which affects one’s performance in sports. Sleep is recommended to ensure sport performance and preventing injuries. 2. Media Sports such as rock climbing are addictive and have high risks of physical injuries or death. 5.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) Behaviors such as smoking and use of other drugs frequently leads to addiction. 2. Sport Canada Sport leaders need to “think differently” about existing risks. They may not sleep well thinking of them. 6. Probability claims: numbers & narratives 6.1 Popular Culture sources: 1. National Collegiate Athletic Association 6 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM NCAA presents the probability in narrative form. There is no quantitative value used in indicating the likelihood of an injury or risk happening. However, the sources of risks and the risks themselves show that there are a wide range of things that could cause harm. 2. Media The probability claim is presented as being informative indicating why people could engage in risk behaviors. 6.2 Scientific or Governmental sources: 1. The Office of Controlled Substances (OCS) The probability claim is expressed as obvious. It indicates that when a person indulged in drugs, there is a high probability of getting addicted. 2. Sport Canada The probability claim is expressed as “preventative measures to reduce likelihood of injury” (“Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport,” n.d.). It means that there is a high probability and preventive measures are needed to reduce it. 7 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM References Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport. (n.d.). Risk Registry. Retrieved from https://cces.ca/risk-registry Reference List Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport. (n.d.). Risk Registry. Retrieved from https://cces.ca/risk-registry Emily Kroshus. (n.d.). Mind, Body and Sport: Risk factors in the sport environment. Retrieved from https://www.ncaa.org/sport-science-institute/mind-body-and-sport-risk-factors-sportenvironment NCAA. (n.d.). What is the NCAA? Retrieved from https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/ncaa-101/what-ncaa Controlled Substances. (2020). Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/health-concerns/controlled-substancesprecursor-chemicals/controlled-substances.html Heirene, R. M., Shearer, D., Roderique-Davies, G., & Mellalieu, S. D. (2016). Addiction in extreme sports: An exploration of withdrawal states in rock climbers. Journal of behavioral addictions, 5(2), 332-341. Ranjbaran, M., Mohammadshahi, F., Mani, S., & Karimy, M. (2018). Risk factors for addiction potential among college students. International Journal of Preventive Medicine, 9(1), 17. 8 20210510015857project_part_2 345-101 Risk and Knowledge, H21 R&K Project Part 2: SUBMISSION FORM ==END== 9 20210510015857project_part_2