Louisiana State University

BLAW 3201

Ch.4

1)What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando parks?

 

 

2. Using an exponential smoothing model with smoothing constant α = .20, how much weight would be assigned to the 2nd most recent period?

 

3. Forecasts

 

4. One use of short-range forecasts is to determine

 

5. Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into three categories

 

6. A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a

 

7. Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a

 

8. The three major types of forecasts used by business organizations are

 

9. Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

 

10. The two general approaches to forecasting are

 

11. Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

 

12. The forecasting model that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as the

 

13. Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

 

14. Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?

 

15. Which of the following statements about time series forecasting is true?

 

16. Time series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

17. Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called

 

18. Which of the following is not present in a time series?

 

19. The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the

 

20. In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted?

 

21. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. April

39 36 40 42 48 46

 

22. Which time series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

 

23. John’s House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It assigns a weight of 5 to the previous month’s demand, 3 to demand two months ago, and 1 to demand three months ago. If sales amounted to 1000 pancakes in May, 2200 pancakes in June, and 3000 pancakes in July, what should be the forecast for August?

 

24. A six-month moving average forecast is better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand

 

25. Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of

 

26. Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is true?

 

27. Which time series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

 

28. Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

 

29. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

 

30. Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 99, and an alpha of .4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be

 

31. A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n)

 

32. Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an α of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

 

33. Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most

slowly to forecast errors?

 

62. The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting is to

 

63. Given forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

 

64. The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is

 

65. A time series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1 X. What is your forecast for period 7?

 

66. For a given product demand, the time series trend equation is 53 - 4 X. The negative sign on the slope of the equation

 

67. Yamaha manufacturers which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal fluctuations?

 

68. Which of the following is true regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model?

 

69. Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25.

What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

 

70. A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average over all months is 190. The approximate seasonal index for July is

 

71. A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

 

72. The percent of variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the regression equation is measured by the

 

73. The degree or strength of a linear relationship is shown by the

 

74. If two variables were perfectly correlated, the correlation coefficient r would equal

 

75. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate

 

76. The tracking signal is the

 

77. Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is