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In a crisis not caused by macroeconomic imbalance, economists are uncertain whether a country should try to defend its currency
In a crisis not caused by macroeconomic imbalance, economists are uncertain whether a country should try to defend its currency. Why are these mutually exclusive and what are the pros and cons of each alternative?
Expert Solution
When a financial crisis arises, economists are conflicted about whether the country should raise interest rates to protect the value of the currency or to lower interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and borrowing, which in turn, will protect the value of the currency. Because the decision to increase interest rates has different risks than lowering them, economists tend to stand on one side of the aisle or the other on this issue.
When interest rates increase, the risk is that consumers become less inclined to borrow. While this move does stabilize the value of the currency, many economists feel that this stability is merely artificial. When consumers are less inclined to borrow, spending decreases and the amount of cash being injected into the economy declines. As a result, the economy stops growing.
When interest rates decrease, many economists feel that consumers will spend more and stimulate the economy. This was the logic behind President Obama's stimulus package, whereby consumers received additional monies to inject into the economy. However, this approach also possesses unique risks. When interest rates are lowered, some economists feel that this artificially stimulates the economy. In addition, inflation increases, and, at some point, interest rates will go up again, bringing the economy to a screeching halt. Another risk of this approach is that consumer spending may not be enough to stabilize the economy.
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