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Homework answers / question archive / A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:        Day   Blueberry Muffins   Cinnamon Buns   Cupcakes 1 30 18 45 2 34 17 26 3 32 19 27 4 34 19 23 5 35 22 22 6 30 23 48 7 34 23 29 8 36 25 20 9 29 24 14 10 31 26 18 11 35 27 47 12 31 28 26 13 37 29 27 14 34 31 24 15 33 33 22       a

A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:        Day   Blueberry Muffins   Cinnamon Buns   Cupcakes 1 30 18 45 2 34 17 26 3 32 19 27 4 34 19 23 5 35 22 22 6 30 23 48 7 34 23 29 8 36 25 20 9 29 24 14 10 31 26 18 11 35 27 47 12 31 28 26 13 37 29 27 14 34 31 24 15 33 33 22       a

Operations Management

A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:

    

  Day   Blueberry Muffins   Cinnamon Buns   Cupcakes
1 30 18 45
2 34 17 26
3 32 19 27
4 34 19 23
5 35 22 22
6 30 23 48
7 34 23 29
8 36 25 20
9 29 24 14
10 31 26 18
11 35 27 47
12 31 28 26
13 37 29 27
14 34 31 24
15 33 33 22
 

   

a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.

   

     
  Blueberry Muffin : The (Click to select)seasonal-adjusted naivebasic naivetrend-adjusted naive forecast is   
  Cinnamon Buns : The (Click to select)basic naiveseasonal-adjusted naivetrend-adjusted naive forecast is   
  Cupcakes : The (Click to select)basic naiveseasonal-adjusted naivetrend-adjusted naive forecast is   
 

    

b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

    

 

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that (Click to select)demandsales adequately reflect (Click to select)salesdemand. We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.

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Plot of the Sales data:

Blueberry muffins sales data shows that the sale of muffins is stable, use simple naïve forecast method.

Forecast units of Blueberry muffins on 16th day = units sold on 15th day

Forecast units of Blueberry muffins on 16th day = 33 dozens

Cinnamon Buns sales data shows that increasing trend in sales. Apply trend-adjusted naïve method. The difference of the last two daily sales data is obtained and then difference is added to previous sales data to forecast the next period demand.

Forecast units of Cinnamon Buns on 16th day = Sales on 15th day (sales on 15th – sales on 14th)

Forecast units of Cinnamon Buns on 16th day = 33 + (33 – 31) = 35 dozens

Cupcakes shows seasonal pattern in sales data, the cycle repeats after five days, as shown below:

Cycle 1

Cycle 2

Cycle 3

Cycle 4

  Day

  Cupcakes

  Cupcakes

  Cupcakes

  Day

  Cupcakes

  Day

  Cupcakes

1

45

6

48

11

47

16

  

2

26

7

29

12

26

    

3

27

8

20

13

27

    

4

23

9

14

14

24

    

5

22

10

18

15

22

    

Apply seasonal-adjusted naïve forecasting method. The forecast value for period in next seasonal cycle is equal to the actual sales of corresponding period in recent seasonal cycle. Corresponding day 16 in cycle 4 is Day 11.

Forecast units of Cupcakes on 16th day = sales in Day 11

Forecast units of Cupcakes on 16th day = 47 dozens

  Blueberry Muffin

Basic naïve method

33 dozens

  Cinnamon Buns

Trend-adjusted naive method

35 dozens

  Cupcakes

Seasonal-adjusted naïve method

47 dozens

b.

Option is "Sales adequetly reflects demand"

please see the attached file for complete solution 

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