Harry the Axe is one of ten suspects found at the murder scene

Statistics Nov 18, 2020

Harry the Axe is one of ten suspects found at the murder scene. On searching Harry a rare watch was found on him identical to that owned by the victim. The victim’s watch is missing. Harry claimed it was his, but only 0.1% of the population has a similar watch. What is the probability that Harry is the murderer given the new evidence?