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Week 6 - Discussion: "Upside" risks in harvest planning? Prompt In this module we learn about the implications of what is known as "downside risk," for example fire, on efficient harvest timing
Week 6 - Discussion: "Upside" risks in harvest planning?
Prompt
In this module we learn about the implications of what is known as "downside risk," for example fire, on efficient harvest timing.
Risk can also come in the form of largely upside risk: good (but unpredictable) changes to economic or biological conditions. Drawing on materials from this module and/or your own knowledge, propose a possible upside risk for owners of timber land intended for harvest. How might it influence their harvest timing choice? You may (optionally) reference an outside reading. If you do, please cite or link to it and ensure it is from an appropriate news or scholarly source that is accessible.
Expert Solution
One potential upside risk for timber landowners is an extended period of better than expected weather, in the form of additional sunshine or rain, or mild temperatures. This would result in increased wood growth, giving them higher productivity and output. The resulting change in production may influence their harvest timing, but only if the better weather is expected to continue. The effects of climate change make this a possibility in some areas. If it's determined the new weather conditions are likely to continue in the future, they should perform a recalculation of the stumpage value to determine the appropriate rotation length.
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