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In response to disruptive COVID-19 economic and financial impact, in March 2020, the Governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe, decided to cut official cash rate twice from 0
In response to disruptive COVID-19 economic and financial impact, in March 2020, the Governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe, decided to cut official cash rate twice from 0.75% to historical low of 0.25%, with inflation within the target rate at 2.2%, unemployment at 6.2 % , GDP growth1.4% and slow growth in housing loans. Explain why the RBA dropped the official cash rate to 0.25%. Justify your answer with reasons and evidence. Note: Information is available in the monthly minutes of RBA. https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2020/
Expert Solution
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is Australia's central bank and derives its functions and powers from the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Its duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. It does this by conducting monetary policy to meet an agreed medium-term inflation target, working to maintain a strong financial system and efficient payments system, and issuing the nation's banknotes.Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.Mr Lowe holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.Comm (Honours) in Economics/Econometrics from the University of New South Wales. He has authored numerous papers, including on the linkages between monetary policy and financial stability. He commenced as Governor on 18 September 2016.
COVID-19 is primarily a public health issue, but it is also having a major impact on the economy and the financial system. As the virus has spread, countries have restricted the movement of people across borders and implemented social distancing measures. The result has been major disruptions to economic activity across the world. This is likely to remain the case for some time yet as efforts continue to contain the virus.Like all countries The ausralian government also changed their economic situation while COVID19.Philip Lowe's speech shows the current financial system in there.that is,there do not yet have the GDP data for the June quarter, but it will show the biggest economiccontraction in many decades, likely to be around 7 per cent.it is that this decline is not as large as initially feared. Similarly, while the labour marketoutcomes have been poor, they have not been as bad as expected. Hours worked were initiallyexpected to fall by a staggering 20 per cent over the first half of this year. The actual fall has beenaround half of this, largely due to Australia's initial success in containing the virus and the earlier-than-expected easing of some restrictions.
Looking forward, there is a high degree of uncertainty about the outlook and economic recovery depends upon how successful. In their baseline scenario, they expecting the Australian economy to contract by around 6 per cent this year, and then grow by5 per cent next year and 4 per cent in 2022. It is possible that they will do better than this if there isnear-term success in containing the virus or there are medical breakthroughs. On the other hand, if people to see further setbacks in containing the virus, the recovery would be delayed even further. a recovery that is uneven and bumpy. The recovery is also likely to be more drawn out than was initially expected despite the downturn beingless severe than expected.reduce GDP growth in the September quarter by at least2 percentage points. This will broadly offset the recovery that has been taking place in most otherparts of the country. As a result, they are now not expecting a lift in economic growth until theDecember quarter.people's attitudes to spending are changing because of the pandemic. It is probable that households and businesses will remain more cautious and that this will affectconsumption and investment.
unemployment rate continues to increase, reaching around 10 per cent later this year. Unemployment would have been substantiallyhigher if it were not for the JobKeeper and other income support programs. And, i people who are on zero hours, the true unemployment rate is higher than the published measure. expecting the published unemployment rate to decline gradually from 10 per cent,but to still be around 7 per cent in a few years' time.
inflation is likely to be very low. Inflation fellinto negative territory in the June quarter for the first time since the early 1960s. While groceryprices and prices of some other items rose, this was more than offset by the decline in oil prices and governments' decisions to make child care (and some pre-school) free. expecting inflation to return to positive territory in the current quarter, but to average between only 1 and 1½ per centover the next few years. Wage growth is also expected to be low, averaging 1½ per cent over thenext two years.an important priority will be to boost jobs. high unemployment is likely tobe with them which should be a concern them all. The Reserve Bank will do what it can with its policy instruments to support the journey back to.
COVID19 Is the vey challenging time to all over the world.yes we are moving with the virus and go forward until success.
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