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Two hockey teams, the Alphas and Betas, are competing in a 7—game championship match
Two hockey teams, the Alphas and Betas, are competing in a 7—game championship match. The ?rst team to win four games wins the championship. Assume the Alphas win a game with probability .6, and the Betas win a game with probability .4. (a) What is the probability of the Alphas winning four games in a row? (b) What is the probability that the match ends after four games? Remember that either team can win. (c) What is the probability that the match ends after ?ve games? Hint: remember that the last game of the match must be won by the winner of the full match.
Expert Solution
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Step-by-step explanation
Probability of winning a game by team Alpha and betas are same
So,
Probability of winning a game by team alpha P(α)=0.6
Probability of winning a game by team betas P(β)=0.4
a)All first four game win by team alphas
probability of this Case
=P(α)×P(α)×P(α)×P(α)
=0.6×0.6×0.6×0.6
=0.1296
b)probability that match ends after 4 game in this situation we have two case
Case 1 = all first four game win by team alphas
Now probability of this Case
=P(α)×P(α)×P(α)×P(α)
=0.6×0.6×0.6×0.6
=0.1296
Case 2= all first four game win by team betas
Now probability of this case
=P(β)×P(β)×P(β)×P(β)
=0.4×0.4×0.4×0.4
=0.0256
So now required probability
=0.1296+0.0256
=0.1552
c)probability that the match ends after five games
In this situation we have two cases
Case 1 = 3 out of 4 game win by team alpha and than 5th game also win by team alphas
Now probability of this case
For first 4 game probability finding by binomial distribution
Formula of binomial distribution
P(X=x)=nCx × p^x × q^(n-x)
=4C3×0.6^3×0.6
=4×0.6^4
=0.5184
Now probability 5th game also won by team alphas
=0.5184×0.6
=0.31104
Case 2 = 3 out of 4 game win by team betas and than 5th game also win by team betas
For first 4 game probability
=4C3×0.4^3×0.4
=4×0.4^4
=0.1024
Now probability that 5th game also won by team betas
=0.1024×0.4
=0.04096
Now required probability
=0.31104+0.04096
=0.352
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