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Original Post: In his award winning book, Thinking Fast and Slow, renowned Professor of Psychology Daniel Kahneman describes an intriguing experiment in which they give participants a description of a woman named Linda

Math Feb 24, 2022

Original Post: In his award winning book, Thinking Fast and Slow, renowned Professor of Psychology Daniel Kahneman describes an intriguing experiment in which they give participants a description of a woman named Linda. Here is the description:

 

Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.

 

Participants were then asked which is more likely, that Linda is a bank teller or that Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. To their surprise, all participants thought that it was more likely that Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. Despite how reasonable this may seem (as it did to the participants) it is not correct.

Give your thoughts about why it is actually less likely that Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement than that she is just a bank teller despite the description give of her.

 

Expert Solution

Linda is less likely to be a bank teller and in the feminist movement because as we increase specificity of an outcome the probability decreases. The options are she is either a bank teller alone or she adds being in the feminist movement to being a bank teller.   For example if the probability of being a bank teller (B) is 1/5 and the probability of being in the feminist movement (F) is 1/5 then (P)B∩(P)F=125 . This proves she is more likely to be a bank teller than a bank teller and in the feminist movement.

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