New Charter University

BUISNESS BA521

Chapter 12 Some Lessons from Capital Market History

Multiple Choice Questions

1)Last year, T-bills returned 2 percent while your investment in large-company stocks earned an average of 5 percent. Which one of the following terms refers to the difference between these two rates of return?

1. 1. risk premium
   2. geometric return
   3. arithmetic
   4. standard deviation
   5. variance

2. Which one of the following best defines the variance of an investment's annual returns over a number of years?
   1. The average squared difference between the arithmetic and the geometric average annual returns.
   2. The squared summation of the differences between the actual returns and the average geometric return.
   3. The average difference between the annual returns and the average return for the period.
   4. The difference between the arithmetic average and the geometric average return for the period.
   5. The average squared difference between the actual returns and the arithmetic average return.

3. Standard deviation is a measure of which one of the following?
   1. average rate of return
   2. volatility
   3. probability
   4. risk premium
   5. real returns

4. Which one of the following is defined by its mean and its standard deviation?
   1. arithmetic nominal return
   2. geometric real return
   3. normal distribution
   4. variance
   5. risk premium

5. The average compound return earned per year over a multi-year period is called the     average return.
   1. arithmetic
   2. standard
   3. variant
   4. geometric
   5. real

6. The return earned in an average year over a multi-year period is called the                                    average return.
   1. arithmetic
   2. standard
   3. variant
   4. geometric
   5. real

7. Assume that the market prices of the securities that trade in a particular market fairly reflect the available information related to those securities. Which one of the following terms best defines that market?
   1. riskless market
   2. evenly distributed market
   3. zero volatility market
   4. Blume's market
   5. efficient capital market

8. Which one of the following statements best defines the efficient market hypothesis?
   1. Efficient markets limit competition.
   2. Security prices in efficient markets remain steady as new information becomes available.
   3. Mispriced securities are common in efficient markets.
   4. All securities in an efficient market are zero net present value investments.
   5. Profits are removed as a market incentive when markets become efficient.

9. Stacy purchased a stock last year and sold it today for $3 a share more than her purchase price. She received a total of $0.75 in dividends. Which one of the following statements is correct in relation to this investment?
   1. The dividend yield is expressed as a percentage of the selling price.
   2. The capital gain would have been less had Stacy not received the dividends.
   3. The total dollar return per share is $3.
   4. The capital gains yield is positive.
   5. The dividend yield is greater than the capital gains yield.

10. Which one of the following correctly describes the dividend yield?
    1. next year's annual dividend divided by today's stock price
    2. this year's annual dividend divided by today's stock price
    3. this year's annual dividend divided by next year's expected stock price
    4. next year's annual dividend divided by this year's annual dividend
    5. the increase in next year's dividend over this year's dividend divided by this year's dividend

11. Bayside Marina just announced it is decreasing its annual dividend from $1.64 per share to $1.50 per share effective immediately. If the dividend yield remains at its pre-announcement level, then you know the stock price:
    1. was unaffected by the announcement.
    2. increased proportionately with the dividend decrease.
    3. decreased proportionately with the dividend decrease.
    4. decreased by $0.14 per share.
    5. increased by $0.14 per share.

12. Which one of the following statements related to capital gains is correct?
    1. The capital gains yield includes only realized capital gains.
    2. An increase in an unrealized capital gain will increase the capital gains yield.
    3. The capital gains yield must be either positive or equal to zero.
    4. The capital gains yield is expressed as a percentage of the sales price.
    5. The capital gains yield represents the total return earned by an investor.

13. Which of the following statements is correct in relation to a stock investment?

1. The capital gains yield can be positive, negative, or zero.
2. The dividend yield can be positive, negative, or zero.
3. The total return can be positive, negative, or zero.
4. Neither the dividend yield nor the total return can be negative.

1. I only
2. I and II only
3. I and III only
4. I and IV only
5. IV only

14. The real rate of return on a stock is approximately equal to the nominal rate of return:
    1. multiplied by (1 + inflation rate).
    2. plus the inflation rate.
    3. minus the inflation rate.
    4. divided by (1 + inflation rate).
    5. divided by (1- inflation rate).

15. As long as the inflation rate is positive, the real rate of return on a security will be        the nominal rate of return.
    1. greater than
    2. equal to
    3. less than
    4. greater than or equal to
    5. unrelated to

16. Small-company stocks, as the term is used in the textbook, are best defined as the:
    1. 500 newest corporations in the U.S.
    2. firms whose stock trades OTC.
    3. smallest twenty percent of the firms listed on the NYSE.
    4. smallest twenty-five percent of the firms listed on NASDAQ.
    5. firms whose stock is listed on NASDAQ.

17. Which one of the following statements is a correct reflection of the U.S. markets for the period 1926-2007?
    1. U.S. Treasury bill returns never exceeded a 9 percent return in any one year during the period.
    2. U.S. Treasury bills provided a positive rate of return each and every year during the period.
    3. Inflation equaled or exceeded the return on U.S. Treasury bills every year during the period.
    4. Long-term government bonds outperformed U.S. Treasury bills every year during the period.
    5. National deflation occurred at least once every decade during the period.

18. Which one of the following categories of securities had the highest average return for the period 1926-2007?
    1. U.S. Treasury bills
    2. large company stocks
    3. small company stocks
    4. long-term corporate bonds
    5. long-term government bonds

19. Which one of the following categories of securities had the lowest average risk premium for the period 1926-2007?
    1. long-term government bonds
    2. small company stocks
    3. large company stocks
    4. long-term corporate bonds
    5. U.S. Treasury bills

20. Which one of the following categories of securities has had the most volatile returns over the period 1926-2007?
    1. long-term corporate bonds
    2. large-company stocks
    3. intermediate-term government bonds
    4. U.S. Treasury bills
    5. small-company stocks

21. Which one of the following statements correctly applies to the period 1926-2007?
    1. Large-company stocks earned a higher average risk premium than did small-company stocks.
    2. Intermediate-term government bonds had a higher average return than long-term corporate bonds.
    3. Large-company stocks had an average annual return of 14.7 percent.
    4. Inflation averaged 2.6 percent for the period.
    5. U.S. Treasury bills had a positive average real rate of return.

22. Which one of the following time periods is associated with high rates of inflation? A. 1929-1933

B. 1957-1961

C. 1978-1981

D. 1992-1996

E. 2001-2005

23. Which one of the following statements concerning U.S. Treasury bills is correct for the period 1926- 2007?
    1. The annual rate of return always exceeded the annual inflation rate.
    2. The average risk premium was 0.7 percent.
    3. The annual rate of return was always positive.
    4. The average excess return was 1.1 percent.
    5. The average real rate of return was zero.

24. Which one of the following is a correct ranking of securities based on their volatility over the period of 1926-2007? Rank from highest to lowest.
    1. large company stocks, U.S. Treasury bills, long-term government bonds
    2. small company stocks, long-term corporate bonds, large company stocks
    3. small company stocks, long-term corporate bonds, intermediate-term government bonds
    4. large company stocks, small company stocks, long-term government bonds
    5. intermediate-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, U.S. Treasury bills

25. What was the highest annual rate of inflation during the period 1926-2007?
    1. between 0 and 3 percent
    2. between 3 and 5 percent
    3. between 5 and 10 percent
    4. between 10 and 15 percent
    5. between 15 and 20 percent

26. The excess return is computed as the:
    1. return on a security minus the inflation rate.
    2. return on a risky security minus the risk-free rate.
    3. risk premium on a risky security minus the risk-free rate.
    4. the risk-free rate plus the inflation rate.
    5. risk-free rate minus the inflation rate.

27. Which one of the following earned the highest risk premium over the period 1926-2007?
    1. long-term corporate bonds
    2. U.S. Treasury bills
    3. small-company stocks
    4. large-company stocks
    5. long-term government bonds

28. What was the average rate of inflation over the period of 1926-2007?
    1. less than 2.0 percent
    2. between 2.0 and 2.5 percent
    3. between 2.5 and 3.0 percent
    4. between 3.0 and 3.5 percent
    5. greater than 3.5 percent

29. Assume that you invest in a portfolio of large-company stocks. Further assume that the portfolio will earn a rate of return similar to the average return on large-company stocks for the period 1926-2007. What rate of return should you expect to earn?
    1. less than 10 percent
    2. between 10 and 12.5 percent
    3. between 12.5 and 15 percent
    4. between 15 and 17.5 percent
    5. more than 17.5 percent

30. The average annual return on small-company stocks was about                                percent greater than the average annual return on large-company stocks over the period 1926-2007.
    1. 3
    2. 5
    3. 7
    4. 9
    5. 11

31. Which one of the following was the least volatile over the period of 1926-2007?
    1. large-company stocks
    2. inflation
    3. long-term corporate bonds
    4. U.S. Treasury bills
    5. intermediate-term government bonds

32. Which one of the following statements is correct?
    1. The greater the volatility of returns, the greater the risk premium.
    2. The lower the volatility of returns, the greater the risk premium.
    3. The lower the average return, the greater the risk premium.
    4. The risk premium is unrelated to the average rate of return.
    5. The risk premium is not affected by the volatility of returns.

33. Which of the following correspond to a wide frequency distribution?

1. relatively low risk
2. relatively low rate of return
3. relatively high standard deviation
4. relatively large risk premium

1. II only
2. III only
3. I and II only
4. II and III only
5. III and IV only

34. To convince investors to accept greater volatility, you must:
    1. decrease the risk premium.
    2. increase the risk premium.
    3. decrease the real return.
    4. decrease the risk-free rate.
    5. increase the risk-free rate.

35. If the variability of the returns on large-company stocks were to increase over the long-term, you would expect which of the following to occur as a result?

1. decrease in the average rate of return
2. increase in the risk premium
3. increase in the 68 percent probability range of the frequency distribution of returns
4. decrease in the standard deviation

1. I only
2. IV only
3. II and III only
4. I and III only
5. II and IV only

36. Which one of the following statements is correct based on the historical record for the period 1926- 2007?
    1. The standard deviation of returns for small-company stocks was double that of large-company stocks.
    2. U.S. Treasury bills had a zero standard deviation of returns because they are considered to be risk-free.
    3. Long-term government bonds had a lower return but a higher standard deviation on average than did long-term corporate bonds.
    4. Inflation was less volatile than the returns on U.S. Treasury bills.
    5. Long-term government bonds underperformed intermediate-term government bonds.

37. What is the probability that small-company stocks will produce an annual return that is more than one standard deviation below the average?
    1. 1.0 percent
    2. 2.5 percent
    3. 5.0 percent
    4. 16 percent
    5. 32 percent

38. According to Jeremy Siegel, the real return on stocks over the long-term has averaged about:
    1. 6.8 percent
    2. 8.7 percent
    3. 10.4 percent
    4. 12.3 percent
    5. 14.8 percent

39. The historical record for the period 1926-2007 supports which one of the following statements?
    1. A higher-risk security will provide a higher rate of return next year than will a lower-risk security.
    2. If you need a stated amount of money next year, your best investment option today for those funds would be long-term government bonds.
    3. Increased long-run potential returns are obtained by lowering risks.
    4. It is possible for small-company stocks to more than double in value in any one given year.
    5. Inflation was positive each year throughout the period of 1926-2007.

40. Which of the following statements are true based on the historical record for 1926-2007?

1. Risk and potential reward are inversely related.
2. Risk-free securities produce a positive real rate of return each year.
3. Returns are more predictable over the short-term than they are over the long-term.
4. Bonds are generally a safer investment than are stocks.

1. I only
2. IV only
3. II and III only
4. II and IV only
5. II, III, and IV only

41. Estimates of the rate of return on a security based on a historical arithmetic average will probably tend to        the expected return for the long-term while estimates using the historical geometric average will probably tend to                 the expected return for the short-term.
    1. overestimate; overestimate
    2. overestimate; underestimate
    3. underestimate; overestimate
    4. underestimate; underestimate
    5. accurately; accurately

42. The primary purpose of Blume's formula is to:
    1. compute an accurate historical rate of return.
    2. determine a stock's true current value.
    3. consider compounding when estimating a rate of return.
    4. determine the actual real rate of return.
    5. project future rates of return.

43. Which two of the following are the most likely reasons why a stock price might not react at all on the day that new information related to the stock issuer is released?

1. insiders knew the information prior to the announcement
2. investors need time to digest the information prior to reacting
3. the information has no bearing on the value of the firm
4. the information was anticipated

1. I and II only
2. I and III only
3. II and III only
4. II and IV only
5. III and IV only

44. Which one of the following is most indicative of a totally efficient stock market?
    1. extraordinary returns earned on a routine basis
    2. positive net present values on stock investments over the long-term
    3. zero net present values for all stock investments
    4. arbitrage opportunities which develop on a routine basis
    5. realizing negative returns on a routine basis

45. Which one of the following statements is correct concerning market efficiency?
    1. Real asset markets are more efficient than financial markets.
    2. If a market is efficient, arbitrage opportunities should be common.
    3. In an efficient market, some market participants will have an advantage over others.
    4. A firm will generally receive a fair price when it issues new shares of stock.
    5. New information will gradually be reflected in a stock's price to avoid any sudden change in the price of the stock.

46. Efficient financial markets fluctuate continuously because:
    1. the markets are continually reacting to old information as that information is absorbed.
    2. the markets are continually reacting to new information.
    3. arbitrage trading is limited.
    4. current trading systems require human intervention.
    5. investments produce varying levels of net present values.

47. Inside information has the least value when financial markets are:
    1. weak form efficient.
    2. semiweak form efficient.
    3. semistrong form efficient.
    4. strong form efficient.
    5. inefficient.

48. According to theory, studying historical stock price movements to identify mispriced stocks:
    1. is effective as long as the market is only semistrong form efficient.
    2. is effective provided the market is only weak form efficient.
    3. is ineffective even when the market is only weak form efficient.
    4. becomes ineffective as soon as the market gains semistrong form efficiency.
    5. is ineffective only in strong form efficient markets.

49. Which of the following statements related to market efficiency tend to be supported by current evidence?

1. Markets tend to respond quickly to new information.
2. It is difficult for investors to earn abnormal returns.
3. Short-run prices are difficult to predict accurately based on public information.
4. Markets are most likely weak form efficient.

1. I and III only
2. II and IV only
3. I and IV only
4. I, III, and IV only
5. I, II, and III only

50. If you excel in analyzing the future outlook of firms, you would prefer the financial markets be

            form efficient so that you can have an advantage in the marketplace.

1. 1. weak
   2. semiweak
   3. semistrong
   4. strong
   5. perfect

51. You are aware that your neighbor trades stocks based on confidential information he overhears at his workplace. This information is not available to the general public. This neighbor continually brags to you about the profits he earns on these trades. Given this, you would tend to argue that the financial markets are at best        form efficient.
    1. weak
    2. semiweak
    3. semistrong
    4. strong
    5. perfect

52. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission periodically charges individuals with insider trading and claims those individuals have made unfair profits. Given this, you would be most apt to argue that the markets are less than                                                                    form efficient.
    1. weak
    2. semiweak
    3. semistrong
    4. strong
    5. perfect

53. Individuals who continually monitor the financial markets seeking mispriced securities:
    1. earn excess profits over the long-term.
    2. make the markets increasingly more efficient.
    3. are never able to find a security that is temporarily mispriced.
    4. are overwhelmingly successful in earning abnormal profits.
    5. are always quite successful using only historical price information as their basis of evaluation.

54. One year ago, you purchased a stock at a price of $32.16. The stock pays quarterly dividends of $0.20 per share. Today, the stock is selling for $28.20 per share. What is your capital gain on this investment?

A. -$4.16

B. -$3.96

C. -$3.76

D. -$3.16

E. -$2.96

55. Six months ago, you purchased 100 shares of stock in Global Trading at a price of $38.70 a share. The stock pays a quarterly dividend of $0.15 a share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $40.10 per share. What is the total amount of your dividend income on this investment?

A. $15

B. $30

C. $45

D. $50

E. $60

56. A year ago, you purchased 400 shares of Stellar Wood Products, Inc. stock at a price of $8.62 per share. The stock pays an annual dividend of $0.10 per share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $4.80 per share. What is your total dollar return on this investment?

A. -$382

B. -$372

C. -$1,528

D. -$1,488

E. -$1,360

57. You own 400 shares of Western Feed Mills stock valued at $51.20 per share. What is the dividend yield if your annual dividend income is $352?
    1. 1.68 percent
    2. 1.72 percent
    3. 1.83 percent
    4. 1.13 percent
    5. 1.21 percent

58. West Wind Tours stock is currently selling for $48 a share. The stock has a dividend yield of 2.6 percent. How much dividend income will you receive per year if you purchase 200 shares of this stock? A. $24.96

B. $36.20

C. $124.80

D. $362.00

E. $249.60

59. One year ago, you purchased a stock at a price of $47.50 a share. Today, you sold the stock and realized a total loss of 22.11 percent. Your capital gain was -$12.70 a share. What was your dividend yield?
    1. 4.63 percent
    2. 4.88 percent
    3. 5.02 percent
    4. 12.67 percent
    5. 14.38 percent

60. You just sold 600 shares of Wesley, Inc. stock at a price of $31.09 a share. Last year, you paid $30.92 a share to buy this stock. Over the course of the year, you received dividends totaling $1.20 per share. What is your total capital gain on this investment?

A. -$618

B. -$102

C. $102

D. $618

E. $720

61. Last year, you purchased 500 shares of Analog Devices, Inc. stock for $11.16 a share. You have received a total of $120 in dividends and $7,190 from selling the shares. What is your capital gains yield on this stock?
    1. 26.70 percent
    2. 26.73 percent
    3. 28.85 percent
    4. 29.13 percent
    5. 31.02 percent

62. Today, you sold 200 shares of Indian River Produce stock. Your total return on these shares is 5.65 percent. You purchased the shares one year ago at a price of $31.10 a share. You have received a total of

$100 in dividends over the course of the year. What is your capital gains yield on this investment?

1. 1. 3.68 percent
   2. 4.04 percent
   3. 5.67 percent
   4. 7.26 percent
   5. 7.41 percent

63. Four months ago, you purchased 1,500 shares of Lakeside Bank stock for $11.20 a share. You have received dividend payments equal to $0.25 a share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $8.60 a share. What is your total dollar return on this investment?

A. -$3,900

B. -$3,525

C. -$3,150

D. -$2,950

E. -$2,875

64. One year ago, you purchased 500 shares of Best Wings, Inc. stock at a price of $9.60 a share. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.10 per share. Today, you sold all of your shares for $15.60 a share. What is your total percentage return on this investment?
    1. 38.46 percent
    2. 39.10 percent
    3. 39.72 percent
    4. 62.50 percent
    5. 63.54 percent

65. Last year, you purchased a stock at a price of $47.10 a share. Over the course of the year, you received $2.40 per share in dividends while inflation averaged 3.4 percent. Today, you sold your shares for

$49.50 a share. What is your approximate real rate of return on this investment?

1. 6.30 percent
2. 6.79 percent
3. 7.18 percent
4. 9.69 percent
5. 10.19 percent

66. One year ago, you purchased 200 shares of a stock at a price of $54.18 a share. Today, you sold those shares for $40.25 a share. During the past year, you received total dividends of $164 while inflation averaged 4.2 percent. What is your approximate real rate of return on this investment?
    1. -24.20 percent
    2. -28.40 percent
    3. -20.00 percent
    4. 20.00 percent
    5. 24.20 percent

67. What is the amount of the excess return on a U.S. Treasury bill if the risk-free rate is 2.8 percent and the market rate of return is 8.35 percent?
    1. 0.00 percent
    2. 2.80 percent
    3. 5.55 percent
    4. 8.35 percent
    5. 11.15 percent

68. A stock had returns of 11 percent, -18 percent, -21 percent, 5 percent, and 34 percent over the past five years. What is the standard deviation of these returns?
    1. 18.74 percent
    2. 20.21 percent
    3. 20.68 percent
    4. 22.60 percent
    5. 23.49 percent

69. The common stock of Air United, Inc., had annual returns of 15.6 percent, 2.4 percent, -11.8 percent, and 32.9 percent over the last four years, respectively. What is the standard deviation of these returns?
    1. 13.29 percent
    2. 14.14 percent
    3. 16.50 percent
    4. 17.78 percent
    5. 19.05 percent

70. A stock had annual returns of 3.6 percent, -8.7 percent, 5.6 percent, and 11.1 percent over the past four years. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will produce a return of 20 percent or more in a single year?
    1. less than 0.1 percent
    2. less than 0.5 percent but greater than 0.1 percent
    3. less than 1.0 percent but greater the 0.5 percent
    4. less than 2.5 percent but greater than 1.0 percent
    5. less than 5 percent but greater than 2.5 percent

71. A stock has an expected rate of return of 13 percent and a standard deviation of 21 percent. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will lose at least half of its value in any one given year?
    1. 0.1 percent
    2. 0.5 percent
    3. 1.0 percent
    4. 2.5 percent
    5. 5.0 percent

72. A stock has returns of 18 percent, 11 percent, -21 percent, and 6 percent for the past four years.

Based on this information, what is the 95 percent probability range of returns for any one given year?

1. 1. -13.56 to 20.56 percent
   2. -24.60 to 31.80 percent
   3. -30.62 to 37.62 percent
   4. -47.68 to 54.68 percent
   5. -71.73 to 71.73 percent

73. Your friend is the owner of a stock which had returns of 25 percent, -36 percent, 1 percent, and 16 percent for the past three years. Your friend thinks the stock may be able to achieve a return of 50 percent or more in a single year. Based on these returns, what is the probability that your friend is correct?
    1. less than 0.5 percent
    2. greater than 0.5 percent but less than 1.0 percent
    3. greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent
    4. greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
    5. greater than 16.0 percent

74. A stock had returns of 15 percent, 8 percent, 12 percent, -21 percent, and -4 percent for the past five years. Based on these returns, what is the approximate probability that this stock will return at least 15 percent in any one given year?
    1. less than 0.5 percent
    2. greater than 0.5 percent but less than 1.0 percent
    3. greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent
    4. greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
    5. greater than 16.0 percent

75. A stock had returns of 14 percent, 13 percent, -10 percent, and 7 percent for the past four years. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will lose no more than 10 percent in any one year?
    1. greater than 0.5 but less than 1.0 percent
    2. greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent
    3. greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
    4. greater than 84 percent but less than 97.5 percent
    5. greater than 95 percent

76. Over the past five years, a stock produced returns of 11 percent, 14 percent, 2 percent, -9 percent, and 5 percent. What is the probability that an investor in this stock will not lose more than 10 percent in any one given year?
    1. greater than 0.5 but less than 1.0 percent
    2. greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent
    3. greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
    4. greater than 84 percent but less than 97.5 percent
    5. greater than 95 percent

77. A stock has annual returns of 6 percent, 14 percent, -3 percent, and 2 percent for the past four years. The arithmetic average of these returns is                                           percent while the geometric average return for the period is                 percent.

A. 4.57; 4.75

B. 4.75; 4.57

C. 6.33; 6.19

D. 6.19; 6.33

E. 6.33; 6.33

78. A stock has annual returns of 13 percent, 21 percent, -12 percent, 7 percent, and -6 percent for the past five years. The arithmetic average of these returns is        percent while the geometric average return for the period is percent.

A. 3.89; 3.62

B. 3.89; 4.60

C. 3.62; 3.89

D. 4.60; 3.62

E. 4.60; 3.89

79. A stock had returns of 16 percent, 4 percent, 8 percent, 14 percent, -9 percent, and -5 percent over the past six years. What is the geometric average return for this time period?
    1. 4.26 percent
    2. 4.67 percent
    3. 5.13 percent
    4. 5.39 percent
    5. 5.60 percent

80. 
    A stock had the following prices and dividends. What is the geometric average return on this stock?
    1. -15.87 percent
    2. -15.21 percent
    3. -13.33 percent
    4. -12.91 percent
    5. -11.48 percent

81. Over the past fifteen years, the common stock of The Flower Shoppe, Inc. has produced an arithmetic average return of 12.2 percent and a geometric average return of 11.5 percent. What is the projected return on this stock for the next five years according to Blume's formula?
    1. 11.70 percent
    2. 11.89 percent
    3. 12.00 percent
    4. 12.03 percent
    5. 12.12 percent

82. Based on past 26 years, Westerfield Industrial Supply's common stock has yielded an arithmetic average rate of return of 9.63 percent. The geometric average return for the same period was 8.57 percent. What is the estimated return on this stock for the next 4 years according to Blume's formula?
    1. 8.70 percent
    2. 8.92 percent
    3. 9.13 percent
    4. 9.38 percent
    5. 9.50 percent

83. A stock has a geometric average return of 14.6 percent and an arithmetic average return of 15.5 percent based on the last 33 years. What is the estimated average rate of return for the next 6 years based on Blume's formula?
    1. 14.79 percent
    2. 14.96 percent
    3. 15.28 percent
    4. 15.36 percent
    5. 15.42 percent

84. Define and explain the three forms of market efficiency.

85. What are the two primary lessons learned from capital market history? Use historical information to justify that these lessons are correct.

86. How can an investor lose money on a stock while making money on a bond investment if there is a reward for bearing risk? Aren't stocks riskier than bonds?

87. Shawn earned an average return of 14.6 percent on his investments over the past 20 years while the S&P 500, a measure of the overall market, only returned an average of 13.9 percent. Explain how this can occur if the stock market is efficient.

88. You want to invest in an index fund which directly correlates to the overall U.S. stock market. How can you determine if the market risk premium you are expecting to earn is reasonable for the long-term?

89. Suppose a stock had an initial price of $80 per share, paid a dividend of $1.35 per share during the year, and had an ending share price of $87. What was the capital gains yield?
    1. 1.55 percent
    2. 1.69 percent
    3. 8.05 percent
    4. 8.75 percent
    5. 10.44 percent

90. Suppose you bought a 15 percent coupon bond one year ago for $950. The face value of the bond is

$1,000. The bond sells for $985 today. If the inflation rate last year was 9 percent, what was your total real rate of return on this investment?

1. 1. -4.88 percent
   2. -5.32 percent
   3. 9.61 percent
   4. 9.78 percent
   5. 10.47 percent

91. Calculate the standard deviation of the following rates of return:
    1. 10.79 percent
    2. 12.60 percent
    3. 13.48 percent
    4. 14.42 percent
    5. 15.08 percent

92. You've observed the following returns on Crash-n-Burn Computer's stock over the past five years: 2 percent, -12 percent, 27 percent, 22 percent, and 18 percent. What is the variance of these returns?

A. 0.02070

B. 0.02588

C. 0.01725

D. 0.01684

93. You've observed the following returns on Crash-n-Burn Computer's stock over the past five years: 3 percent, -10 percent, 24 percent, 22 percent, and 12 percent. Suppose the average inflation rate over this time period was 3.6 percent and the average T-bill rate was 4.8 percent. Based on this information, what was the average nominal risk premium?
    1. 5.15 percent
    2. 5.40 percent
    3. 6.01 percent
    4. 6.37 percent
    5. 6.60 percent