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University of Houston, Downtown PHIL 1301 1)Is optimism always bad? Suppose I want to test new hires for marijuana use
University of Houston, Downtown
PHIL 1301
1)Is optimism always bad?
- Suppose I want to test new hires for marijuana use. I have a test that is 90% accurate. I test 100 new hires. Can you tell how likely it is that each person I test is guilty?
- A random number generator is used to determine whether people who attend a particular event get to sit in the front or the back of the auditorium. If you get an odd number, you sit at the back. The only numbers used in the generator are one and two. If you get an even number, you sit in the front. I have attended this event three times and always sat at the front. Am I more likely to sit in the back than the front the next time I go?
- Suppose I want to sit in the front. If I say that I am less likely to sit in the front than the back, am I guilty of the Optimism Bias?
- Can modus ponens be used in an unsound argument?
- Can disjunctive syllogism be used in a sound argument?
- Suppose I paint 4 sides of a 6-sided die red and 2 sides green. Suppose I then say that since there are only 2 options, the odds of getting red or green are 50/50 each. Am I guilty of probability neglect?
- Am I guilty of the conjunction fallacy in question 7?
- If I am attempting to do modus ponens, what must my 2nd premise be in the argument below?
- If A, then B ii.A
iii. Thus, B
- What are i and ii called in the argument above?
- Suppose I am more afraid of eating food than I am of flying. Suppose I have this fear because 1 in 3,408 people chokes to death on food while 1 in 9,821 die flying. Is this fear broadly guilty of probability neglect?
- Suppose I learn about the rates in the previous question. If I estimate that I have a 1 in 50,000 chance of choking to death, am I guilty of Optimism Bias
- In question 12, would I also be guilty of Base Rate Neglect?
- Is the parent's evaluation accurate? This is a highly selective school. All of the best students apply. Only 6% of applicants make it into this school, but my son is brilliant! They are certainly going to accept him!
- Which fallacy is the parent not guilty of here? A – Optimism Bias; B – Conjunction Fallacy; - C – Probability Neglect
- If you start with the following proposition, can you do disjunctive syllogism to derive B? A or B
- If you can do disjunctive syllogism, what would your second premise have to be? A – A; B – not-B; C – I said that this wasn’t disjunctive syllogism. You can’t fool me. D – Not-A.
- What is more likely? A or A and B? A – A; B – A and B; C – They are probably identical.
- Can you be guilty of probability neglect but still get the right answer in cases like this? “Bob spends his weekends hitting the clubs and carousing.
What is more likely?
A – Bob is a choir boy; B – Bob is a college athlete.”
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