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The table below is the YTM of U

Finance

The table below is the YTM of U.S. Treasuries with different maturities on April 1, 2020

1 yr.

2 yr.

3 yr.

5 yr.

7 yr.

0.16%

0.23%

0.28%

0.37%

0.51%

a. What is the expected two-year rate in three years according to the Pure Expectations Theory?

b.What is an inverted yield curve? Give one reason that may cause the yield curve to invert.

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Solution

1.

Expected two year rate in three years is given by the formula as
=((1+r5)^5/(1+r3)^3)^(1/2)-1
=((1+0.37%)^5/(1+0.28%)^3)^(1/2)-1
=0.51%

2.
Inverted yield curve is when long term maturity bonds have lower yield than short term maturity bonds, i.e., long-term yields fall below short-term yields

Most investors believe short-term rates are going to decline sharply at some point in future. One reason that the yield may be inverted because investors expect recession