The long-run trend in real GDP is upward

GDP tends to continue to increase over time. Although there are increases, the growth does not happen in a linear fashion. There are still cycles where the economy contracts as it redistributes resources over the long run. There are many factors that affect the cycle in an upward direction, including advances in productivity, increased levels of education of the workforce, and consumer and business confidence in the future. However, if the confidence level rises too high, there may be a chance for an "overheated" or inflationary economy, If that happens, both business and government will try to cut back and control the level of expansion. If they cut back too much, or the delicate balance becomes upset for some other reason, such as wars or unfavorable weather conditions then the cycle may contract too far. That leads to a low point, from which the cycle begins all over again.