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What are the best macroeconomic indicators for determining the possibility of a future recession?

Economics Dec 15, 2020

What are the best macroeconomic indicators for determining the possibility of a future recession?

Expert Solution

The macroeconomic indicators are employment data, gross domestic product, and confidence index. These tools can help determine the possibility of a recession. Increasing unemployment rate shows the inability of the economy to create jobs. When unemployment is high, consumer spending falls and thus high chances of a recession occurring. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) examines the overall production of goods and services in an economy. Dwindling GDP can be an indication of recession. Moreover, decreasing confidence index depicts a fall in consumption, as well as investments and hence, can be an indication of a looming recession.

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