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Wesfarmers has developed the following probability distribution for the spot rate of the Indian rupee (INR) against the Australian dollar (A$) in six months to buy call options on INR1
Wesfarmers has developed the following probability distribution for the spot rate of the Indian rupee (INR) against the Australian dollar (A$) in six months to buy call options on INR1.36 million with an exercise price of A$0.3295 and a premium of A$0.0388.
· A$0.2342 [38 per cent probability]
· A$0.4351 [28 per cent probability]
· A$0.5696 [(100-38-28) per cent probability]
What is the expected value of the cash to be paid in A$ for the call option hedge? (enter the whole number without sign and symbol)
Expert Solution
|
Scenario (1) |
Spot rate after 6 Month (2) |
Probability (3) |
Option Settlement(4) (Max (SR - 0.3295 , 0) |
Net Cost (5) = (2) - (4) |
Expected Rate (6) = (3)*(5) |
| 1 | 0.2342 | 0.38 | Lapse | 0.2342 | 0.088996 |
| 2 | 0.4351 | 0.28 | 0.1056 | 0.3295 | 0.09226 |
| 3 | 0.5696 | 0.34 | 0.2401 | 0.3295 | 0.11203 |
| 0.293286 |
Net cost = Expected cost + Premium cost
= 1360000 * 0.293286 + 1360000* 0.0388
= A$451636.96
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