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Problem 17-8 Financial Distress Good Time Company is a regional chain department store
Problem 17-8 Financial Distress Good Time Company is a regional chain department store. It will remain in business for one more year. The probability of a boom year is 80 percent and the probability of a recession is 20 percent. It is projected that the company will generate a total cash flow of $199 million in a boom year and $90 million in a recession. The company's required debt payment at the end of the year is $124 million. The market value of the company's outstanding debt is $97 million. The company pays no taxes. a. What payoff do bondholders expect to receive in the event of a recession? (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answer in dollars, not millions of dollars, rounded to the nearest whole number, e.g., 1,234,567.) b. What is the promised return on the company's debt? (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answer as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g.. 32.16.) c. What is the expected return on the company's debt? (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answer as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g.. 32.16.) a. Payoff b. Promised return c. Expected return % %
Expert Solution
a) The payoff that bondholders expect is either the FV of debt or value of the company in recession, whichever is less.
FV of debt = $124 million
Total CF in recession = $ 90 million
Hence, bondholders will receive $ 90 million in an event of recession.
b) The promised return on debt is =
Promised return = (FV of debt/Market value of debt) -1
=(124 mn/97 mn) - 1 = 1.2783 - 1 = 27.83%
c) Expected payment to bondholders = .80(199) + .20(90) = $177.2 mn
Expected return = (Expected value of debt/Market value of debt) -1
=(177.2/97) -1 = 1.8268 - 1 = 82.68%
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