"Carpet City Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.) 3 mos moving average forecast Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast Error abs() Error abs() 1 10 2 9 3 8 4 9 5 10 6 12 7 14 8 11 9 Please apply weights stated in the problem Weights: 0.55 (most recent month), 0.35, 0.10 Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9 Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9 Which is a better forecast method? Petroco Service Station alpha = 0.4 Month Gas Demand Exp Forecast Error October 775 ---- November 835 December 605 January 450 February 600 March 700 April 820 May 925 June 1500 July 1200 August 8410 SUM MAPD Science and Technology Mutual Fund alpha = 0.3 Month Fund Price 3 mos moving average forecast Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast Exp Forecast 3 mos MA error Weighted 3 mos MA error Exp. Smoothing error 1 55 3\/4 ---- ---- ---- 2 54 1\/4 ---- ---- 3"

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Carpet City Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd

Math Nov 04, 2020

Carpet City

	Month	Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.)	3 mos moving average forecast	Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast		Error abs()	Error abs()
	1	10
	2	9
	3	8
	4	9
	5	10
	6	12
	7	14
	8	11
	9

				Please apply weights stated in the problem	Weights: 0.55 (most recent month), 0.35, 0.10

	Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average			Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9

	Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average			Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9

	Which is a better forecast method?

Petroco Service Station

alpha =	0.4

Month	Gas Demand	Exp Forecast	Error
October	775	----
November	835
December	605
January	450
February	600
March	700
April	820
May	925
June	1500
July	1200
August
	8410			SUM

MAPD

Science and Technology Mutual Fund
					alpha =	0.3
	Month	Fund Price	3 mos moving average forecast	Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast	Exp Forecast		3 mos MA error	Weighted 3 mos MA error	Exp. Smoothing error
	1	55 3/4	----	----	----
	2	54 1/4	----	----
	3	55 1/8	----	----
	4	58 1/8
	5	53 3/8
	6	51 1/8
	7	56 1/4
	8	59 5/8
	9	62 1/4
	10	59 1/4
	11	62 3/8
	12	58
	13	58 1/8
	14	62 3/4
	15	64 3/4
	16	66 1/8
	17	68 3/4
	18	60 1/2
	19	65 7/8
	20	72 1/4
	21

				Please apply weights stated in the problem	Weight 0.5 (most recent), 0.3, 0.2


	Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average

	Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average

	Compute MAD on exponentially smoothed forecast

	Which is a better forecast method?

Carpet City Regression

	X - axis	Y - axis
	Monthly Construction Permits	Monthly Carpet Sales (1,000 yd.)
	17	9
	25	14
	8	10
	7	12
	14	15
	7	9
	45	24
	19	21
	28	20
	28	29


	Place regression output here
	Y = A + Bx
	A =
	B =

	Forecast Carpet sales for 30 construction permits
	Correlation Coefficient

Gilley's Ice Cream Parlor



		x	y
		Ave. Temp	Ice cream Sold
	Week	(degrees)	(gal.)
	1	68	80
	2	70	115
	3	73	91
	4	79	87
	5	77	110
	6	82	128
	7	85	164
	8	90	178
	9	85	144
	10	92	179
	11	90	144
	12	95	197
	13	80	144
	14	75	123

	Place regression output here

(a)	Y = A + Bx
	A =
	B =

(b)	Correlation Coefficient

(c')	Coefficient of Determination
	Explain the meaning of the coefficient of Determination below. What does it indicate?

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