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Assume you are the captain of a warship CaliforniaPrince of Wales and you are battling against a British battleship 

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Assume you are the captain of a warship CaliforniaPrince of Wales and you are battling against a British battleship . As a very experienced captain, you know that, first, while a warship takes 10 shots at a target, it takes at least 4 shots to sink it. Second, the chance of hitting a target is about 20%. What is the chance that the opponent may sink your boat given the above statistics? What crucial assumptions did you make in the above calculation? and are they reasonable??