If the House and Senate turn Republican in the 2022 elections, what impact will it have on President Biden and his political agenda? How will it affect the making of laws, appointments, and treaties

Based on history, House Republicans should have an edge in midterm elections. But Democrats have some cause for optimism.

Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House, a margin that would be 222-213 if the five currently vacant seats remain with the same party after they've been filled in special elections this year. (In a June 1 special election, the Democrats held on to one more House seat, in New Mexico. Once the newly elected Melanie Stansbury is sworn in, the tally will be 220-211.)

By historical standards, the Democratic edge is small. Only twice since World War II has the majority party held fewer than 222 seats when it was at full strength - the Republicans with 221 seats from 1953 to 1955 and the same number from 2001 to 2003.

- The 2022 cycle "could be another outlier as the country recovers physically and economically from the worst pandemic in 100 years," Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections wrote in CQ Roll Call. "A sense of contentment and confidence that the country is headed in the right direction could tame normal angst from midterm voters toward the party in power."

Biden has seen a consistent approval rating around 53% through June, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average. That's pretty good, especially in an era of high and durable partisanship among voters. As Bill Scher of Washington Monthly has noted, five of the seven presidents facing their first midterm since 1978 had job approval below 50%.